ASK any TD: in terms of importance, there is no contest between a general election and a presidential one. The first offers power, influence and jobs for the boys; the other, official duties in the Park, the possibility of public adulation and an enormous workload.
And while a handful of TDs might harbour presidential ambitions, 165 Dail members are threatened with the loss of their seats come election time.
A general election before the summer is still an odds-on bet at Leinster House, but the upcoming presidential vacancy will not be filled until November. That is why the political parties have pushed the question of Mrs Robinson's successor to one side and refocused on the issue of forming the next government.
The presidential issue hasn't gone away. There is desultory gossip in the corridors of Leinster House about potential candidates. And there has been some low-level tic-tacing between Fine Gael, the Labour Party and Democratic Left on the possibility of an agreed Government candidate.
Albert Reynolds and David Andrews have emerged in Fianna Fail as possible contenders. The PDs are keeping their powder dry, waiting to appraise the lineup of candidates.
Already, there is a hankering in some quarters after the old style of President: male, politically mature, and uncreative. To hear them talk, the country might never have been touched by the phenomenon that is Mary Robinson. A rolling back of the tide, rather than a further development of the office, is envisaged.
The attitude may be rooted partially in male envy: in the sharp contrast between public regard for politicians and for the President. The adversarial nature of party politics is also a factor: TDs are largely unwilling to embrace the non-party template that helped Mrs Robinson make such a success of her presidency.
And, of course, there is money. Elections cost money. Back in 1990, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael spent small fortunes in promoting their candidates, with no return. This time, and with a general election looming, TDs are determined that whatever money is available will go towards their campaigns. The financial "bite" is the strongest argument for an agreed all-party candidate.
Given the attitudes of Fianna Fail and the Labour Party, however, that is unlikely to happen. And help is arriving in the form of the Electoral Bill, at present before the Dail. In return for a limit on election expenditure and a list of donations, candidates will be provided with a Dail-approved subsidy. That Bill not only promises State funding for political parties, it may also subsidise presidential elections.
THUS if the Bill is passed into law and hence the taxpayer bankrolls future elections, this might make the difference between having a President with a full democratic mandate, i.e. one elected by the people, or one chosen by party leaders without an election.
It is a ticklish political problem. But, on the eve of a general election, certain advantages might be squeezed from the situation. For example, an agreed Government candidate might give added solidity to a pre-election pact between Fine Gael, Labour and Democratic Left. It could also challenge the Progressive Democrats to declare their hand at a delicate time. Last time, even though they were in government with Fianna Fail, the PDs plumped for Mrs Robinson, the Labour Party's nominee.
In anticipation of this pressure, the Fianna Fail Parliamentary Party is not expected to choose its candidate until after the general election. The party's ardfheis, on April 18th and 19th, should provide the first clear indication of the relative strength of the candidates. But, because the party has not met in such formal conclave since 1995,
P.J. Mara and Pat Farrell will be anxious to use the event as a springboard for the general election.
The same is true for the Labour Party, which holds its party conference a week earlier. And Democratic Left hopes to secure political traction from its gathering on April 25th/26th.
The downside for the Government parties of agreeing a candidate before a summer general election would become obvious if they failed to be returned to office and if the Labour Party found itself being wooed by Fianna Fail. Campaigning on different sides in a presidential election would not be conducive to good relations in a new government.
For these tactical reasons, linked to the innate self-absorption of TDs at election time, it is unlikely that the names of presidential candidates will become known to the public before they vote on the composition of the 28th Dail.