Success is the ultimate yardstick in politics. And the Taoiseach's recent 92 per cent popularity rating with Fianna Fail supporters reflects hard work, careful judgment and a determination to end the destructive party divisions that haunted the Haughey and Reynolds years. As Mr Ahern has consistently maintained, he is a consensus man who wants to lead a united party. But that does not mean he is a pushover. He has ruthlessly gutted opponents who presumed on his non-confrontational style. Constructive ambiguity and incremental change are his weapons of choice.
Caution and cunning are necessary components in the make-up of any successful political leader. And Mr Ahern has them in abundance. But they are never obvious. Events that confound his detractors or stymie his rivals just appear to happen. They are the inevitable results of developments that occur elsewhere. And any consequential decisions by the Taoiseach are seen to be both reluctant and necessary. Ask Charlie Haughey, Albert Reynolds, Ray Burke or Padraig Flynn about it.
Such a gradualist approach is perfectly suited to the sprawling, multi-skeined political patchwork that is Fianna Fail. But it fails to address the need for immediate clarity and certainty between partners that underpins a successful coalition government. In that regard, however, there is evidence that Mr Ahern has recently recognised the needs of the Progressive Democrats and is now keeping Mary Harney fully informed of pending controversies.
Some months ago, the Taoiseach met the Tanaiste and denied in categoric terms that he had received a donation of £50,000 from a developer in 1989. Then, when the controversy broke last week, Ms Harney was able to deal with the issue in a measured fashion. Her continued presence in government said Mr Ahern was receiving the benefit of the doubt. But her statement was strictly neutral. The Flood tribunal would ultimately decide where the truth lay.
It was a considerable distance from the fraught relationship that existed only a year ago. Back then, a succession of failures by Mr Ahern to keep the Tanaiste informed about internal Fianna Fail business almost brought the Government crashing down. There was the Rennicks' payment to Ray Burke; there was the appointment of his brother-in-law as Revenue Appeals Commissioner; there was Padraig Flynn and Tom Gilmartin and there was his connection with the Sheedy case that ended the careers of two judges.
The requirements of coalition were spelled out to Mr Ahern at that time. And he has modified his behaviour. Not only that, he has enthusiastically backed elements of Progressive Democrats policy in terms of tax rate cuts and the deregulation of the commercial semi-State sector.
Within Fianna Fail, he has quietly withheld promotion from or publicly denied approval to ministers and others who were viewed as being insufficiently supportive or as potential threats. But it was done in such a way as to be near-invisible to the general public. In Cabinet, however, nobody was in any doubt about just how difficult life could suddenly become.
Mr Ahern's consistent popularity with the public is something of a phenomenon. It is all the more striking in a deeply conservative society, where divorce only became legally available in 1997. His relationship with Celia Larkin, following the break-up of his marriage, has been quietly endorsed by the public and she now accompanies him on State visits abroad. The Taoiseach expresses quiet gratitude for the understanding of the electorate. And the voting intentions of young people in particular would suggest he has transformed the issue into a positive factor.
The signing of the Belfast Agreement two years ago drove Mr Ahern's popularity to stratospheric levels. And the fact that he left the funeral of his mother to attend the final negotiating session produced a huge upwelling of public emotion. Since then, he has worked extremely hard to sustain the agreement and to keep the channels of communication open between unionists, loyalists, nationalists and republicans.
The suspension of the Executive and the North/South bodies was a setback, but the process of putting the pieces back together resumes today. And Mr Ahern is hopeful of success. There are economic difficulties on the horizon, in terms of rising inflation and increasing militancy among trade unions. But, with the Programme for Prosperity and Fairness agreed, the Taoiseach is not contemplating renegotiation.
"Bertie Ahern is impossible to fight with," a distinguished Fianna Failer observed. "It's the secret of his popularity."
Maybe. An alternative view is that by the time the Taoiseach's opponent realises he is in a fight, the battle is already over.