Will 3G mobile phones revolutionise how we access information, or will they be just an expensive fad, asks Brian Boyd.
Join the queue. Irish pre-orders for the much-hyped 3G (Third Generation) mobile phones are such that shops can't guarantee they will be able to meet demand over the next few weeks. The first batch of 3G phones will hit Irish shops on Monday, although you can use them only on the Vodafone network for the moment - O2 is expected to be 3G compliant by early spring, with Meteor to follow.
Despite all the advances in the look, shape and functions of the mobile, going from being the size of a fridge to today's slim versions with Internet access and built-in digital cameras, the 3G revolution will deliver a bewildering amount of extras - so much so that the primary use of the mobile (to make calls) will become of secondary importance for consumers.
Dropped calls and poor reception will be a thing of the past - we are promised - and the new phones will have a broadband-style Internet connection. Sending and receiving e-mails will be greatly facilitated by the new technology and you'll be able to use video calling and messaging - meaning that you'll be able to see the person you're talking to and vice versa. No more of those "I can't come back to work, I'm not well" calls from the pub, sadly.
Those people who, bizarrely, choose to play computer games on their mobiles will find a more sophisticated range of games available, while songs and film clips can be downloaded in seconds. Perhaps the most striking feature is the facility where you'll be able to watch a 20-minute clip of the news or a sports event in DVD-style reception.
Vodafone Ireland claims that it will sell 500,000 3G phones within the next two years. The company has already done deals with RTÉ News, Sky News and the English Premiership football league so 3G users can use their phones as mini-televisions. All these electronic "bells and whistles" will come at a price. The cheapest 3G phone will cost around €190 and will probably cost a minimum of €35 a month after that - depending on how much you use the phone for e-mails, Internet, downloading music, and so on. The mobile companies, though, are confident younger users will pay extra for these Star Trek-style functions.
The big-spend advertising campaign to help sell the phones will focus on their "entertainment" strengths. For example, you want to go the cinema but don't know what to see? On your 3G phone you will be able to download digital clips of films currently showing. You can check which particular cinema is showing the film you choose; book the exact seat you want and even download a map of how to get to the cinema.
The 3Gs will also present a threat to the iPod - the manufacturers claim. In a few months' time, it is expected the phones will have hard disks as large as that of the iPod music player, and with music being readily available to download over the phone, this could signify a further change in how music is distributed and consumed. It is also claimed that the 3G phone (with its built-in camera) will be a threat to the digital camera.
INITIALLY, 3G phones will be marketed primarily at the "YAFs" (Young, Active, Fun) - the 18- to 35-year-olds who tend to buy anything new and ostensibly "hip" in an unthinking manner. The phone companies paid massive amounts of money to secure the 3G licences four years ago and when "research and development" is factored in, it's clear the telecommunications industry needs a big commercial hit. Hence the big advertising spend with David Beckham being wheeled out to front the Vodafone 3G campaign.
Because the 3G phone is basically a mini-PC, a big new market is opening up for "adult" content. Whatever about the expected growth in "mobile pornography", the Government has expressed concern that 3G phones could be used to target children, to access or distribute child pornography, or to "groom" children in the same way some Internet chat rooms do.
The former minister for communications, Dermot Ahern, put legislation in place requiring all 3G phone buyers to register their name and address so that anyone who uses the phones for the above purposes can be traced. Critics say the scheme is a lot of work for little effect and that it erodes civil liberties. In Britain, by contrast, the government is looking to mobile operators to use a self-regulatory code.
Whether 3G phones end up being the "new Hula Hoop" - a fad for excitable teenagers - or revolutionising how we access and consume information remains to be seen.
The surveys carried out on potential 3G usage are contradictory - one shows the 3G share of the mobile market will remain below 15 per cent for the next three years; another predicts 50 per cent (of all mobile users) 3G usage within two years.
Either way, a visit to your local phone shop on Monday will show you what all the fuss is about.