The flooding disaster has dealt a near-fatal blow to Pakistan's economy, writes MARY FITZGERALDin Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan
THE ROAD to Cheena twists and turns through what was once a verdant landscape of plenty. But now the fields of sugar cane and other crops on which local farmers relied are either washed away, still under water or flattened under a thick layer of sludge. There is no sign of the livestock that once grazed among the neem trees. Dotted here and there are the crumbling remains of brick houses unable to withstand the force of the floods that struck late last month.
In an open space amid what remains of their village, the farmers of Cheena sit counting their losses in the still air of evening. The figures are grim.
In this village of 6,000 people, more than 100 homes were destroyed in the deluge. Families in some 60 partially collapsed houses are crammed into the one or two rooms still standing. At least 100 acres of farmland have been rendered useless. More than 150 cattle perished.
There is heated debate over the total cost to livelihoods, but everyone agrees it will run to sums considered unimaginable just three weeks ago.
“The loss is almost too much to even think about,” says Mohammed Saddique, an earnest young man from a family whose 14 cattle were swept away. “We can only trust in God for the future.”
Cheena, where almost everyone relies on agriculture to make a living, is one of the thousands of tragedies that together constitute what many fear will be a near-fatal blow to Pakistan’s economy.
Last week World Bank president Robert Zoellick said the flooding had destroyed crops worth about $1 billion (€778 million), but warned that the full impact on soil erosion and agriculture could only be assessed when the water recedes around mid-September.
Many in Pakistan believe the eventual figure will be least twice that.
Across the country, at least 17 million acres of agricultural land have been submerged. More than 200,000 farm animals have died. About one-quarter of Pakistan’s economy and nearly half its workforce depend on agriculture. President Asif Zardari’s recent claim that it would take two years to get the country’s farms up and running again is looking more unlikely by the day. “It will take at least 12 months for the soil to recover once we have removed all the silt the flood brought. That is only the first step,” said Lal Zada, a sugar cane farmer in his 50s from nearby Charsadda. “I lost everything, my crops and my home, but thank God my family survived. God will support us.”
Mohammed Karim, a sprightly septuagenarian whose eight acres of sugar cane and maize were wiped out, estimates the cost of his ruined farm to be 500,000 rupees (€4,500). “I’m worried that it will take a long time before we get assistance from the government,” he said.
The damage to the agricultural economy will be felt beyond Pakistan’s farmers in the form of higher food prices. Already the cost of staple dry goods has increased as people begin hoarding for the expected lean months ahead. The soaring price of fruit and vegetables gives some hint of what might be to come. One man told me how a kilo of tomatoes that once cost 20 rupees now sells for 100 rupees in his remote village. The spectre of food shortages and ensuing civil unrest looms large.
Some have even begun to talk of famine. Mian Iftikhar Hussain, a provincial minister in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, has called for the urgent rebuilding of the region’s irrigation system to revive its devastated agricultural sector. “If immediate steps are not taken, we fear a famine,” he said. “The farmers have lost everything: their crops, their machines, their houses, their seeds.”