Swine flu death toll in UK rises to 29

Grim estimates of thousands of deaths were made as the Government confirmed 29 people in the UK have already died after contracting…

Grim estimates of thousands of deaths were made as the Government confirmed 29 people in the UK have already died after contracting swine flu.

Chief Medical Officer for England, Sir Liam Donaldson, said figures being used by the NHS to plan its services show that a 30 per cent infection rate among the population could possibly lead to 65,000 deaths.

However, estimates vary depending on the numbers who end up infected.

The Republic's chief medical officer Dr Tony Holohan said 146 cases of swine flu had been confirmed here as of yesterday.

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Sir Liam said a National Pandemic Flu Service for England should be up and running towards the end of next week.

The telephone and internet-based service will enable people to get a diagnosis and obtain a unique reference number which gives them access to Tamiflu.

A “flu friend” can then use the number to obtain the antiviral from a depot around the country and take it to the patient.

Sir Liam said the aim of the new flu service was to alleviate pressure on hospitals and GP services, enabling them to look after the “most seriously ill”.

Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales have not yet implemented similar services but could do so in future if pressure on their health services continues to rise.

Twenty six people in England and three in Scotland have now died after contracting the virus.

NHS South East Coast said it was investigating a case but could not confirm whether it was that of an apparently healthy six-year-old boy, who according to some reports died on Wednesday after  contracting the virus.

US President Barack Obama yesterday earmarked $1.825 billion in emergency funding to help fight the spread of swine flu.

Latest statistics show that 211 people in the US have died of the illness, with 37,246 reported cases across the country although officials estimate that up to one million people may have been infected.

The Health Protection Agency (HPA) estimates there were 55,000 new cases of swine flu in England in the last week, including people visiting GPs and those who are looking after themselves at home.

Up to 85,000 people could be currently affected, the HPA modelling shows. The numbers being treated in English hospitals have doubled in one week to 652, of which 53 are in intensive care.

The highest number of hospitalisations (354) are among those aged 16 to 64, followed by under fives (134) and those aged five to 15 (84).

Cherie Blair, the wife of former prime minister Tony Blair, has pulled out of a series of public engagements while she battles the virus.

Sir Liam said there was now “exceptional influenza activity” across most of the country except Yorkshire and the Humber.

The first deliveries of vaccines in August would not be enough to cover everybody in the high risk groups, Sir Liam said but he added that everybody in these groups would be able to get a vaccine as the UK moved deeper into winter.

Health Secretary Andy Burnham said: “I want the public to be reassured that we have been preparing for the possibility of a pandemic for a number of years and all that pre-planning is now paying dividends.” It emerged yesterday that the Royal College of GPs has criticised aspects of the Government’s handling of the epidemic.

The College said GPs have complained of poor out-of-hours planning, confusion over prescribing the antiviral drug Tamiflu and a lack of knowledge over how long patients should stay at home if they have the virus.

Its own figures have shown that flu rates are highest among those aged five to 14 (159.57 per 100,000 population) with babies and children aged up the four the next most affected group (114.12 per 100,000 population).

There has been a surge in the number of people calling NHS Direct which received 47,701 calls on Wednesday.

Nick Chapman, chief executive of NHS Direct, said: “We are prioritising urgent calls so that people most in need are assessed as quickly as possible and urgent calls are being dealt with in less than 20 minutes.”

Channel 4 News said an Oxford Economics report due out today will warn that the UK’s GDP could fall by 5% in the wake of the swine flu outbreak.

The study will say there is a significant risk that the economy would tip into deflation, postponing economic recovery for another couple of years, the programme reported.

PA