THE AFRICAN National Congress, South Africa’s ruling party, could lose its two-thirds majority in parliament following next month’s general election, according to two surveys made public this week.
The projected election result would prove to be a significant blow to the party, which has been in power since the transition to democracy 15 years ago, as it means opposition support would be needed to push legislation through parliament.
The latest Human Sciences Research Council survey found the former liberation movement remains the most popular party among voters, but support for it has fallen from 69 per cent in the 2004 election to 47 per cent as of late last year.
Analysts say the ANC’s popularity has dwindled in recent years because of perceptions that its leadership is self-serving, and that it is unable to significantly curb crime or to alleviate the impoverished circumstances of many of the country’s poorest citizens.
The data, published last Tuesday, was gathered in December as part of the 2008 annual SA Social Attitudes Survey, which the council has published since 2003, and was conducted among a nationally representative sample of 6,613 South Africans.
Black voters remain the core constituency for the ANC, with 58 per cent of those asked who they would vote for next month replying they wanted the ruling party to retain power.
The Democratic Alliance, which is going head-to-head with the newly-formed Congress of the People (Cope) to be the main opposition, is shown to have its support base among whites (39 per cent of the party’s vote), coloureds (21 per cent) and Indians/Asians (8 per cent).
That breakdown would indicate the legacy of the apartheid era still hangs over the party, which is seen by South Africans of colour as a political formation that represents the interests of the white community, despite efforts to change that perception.
Support for Cope, which was formed only last November by disgruntled breakaway members of the ANC, was evenly spread across the race groups.
A second survey, published in South Africa’s Mail and Guardian newspaper yesterday, paints a somewhat different picture.
The survey, compiled by the ANC and leaked to the newspaper, revealed the ruling party would lose only 5 per cent of its national support from the 2004 figure of 69 per cent.
However, the newspaper reported the survey showed the party would lose the Western Cape province next month, the first time the ruling regime will not retain control of all nine provinces in a election.
Reuters adds: South Africa risks undermining the rule of law if prosecutors drop graft charges against ruling ANC leader Jacob Zuma, Cope has warned.
Prosecutors are considering whether to drop graft charges against Mr Zuma after he lodged a legal request, the National Prosecuting Authority said on Wednesday. Dropping them could boost the ANC election campaign.
“What is a source of concern is that we must be assured that there has been no interference with the law,” said Bishop Mvume Dandala, Cope’s presidential candidate.
Last month, a judge postponed Mr Zuma’s trial to August 25th, several months after he is expected to become president.