Should the indications from this survey materialise in next week's referendums on the Belfast Agreement, they will provide some comfort to many people in both jurisdictions, and particularly to the involved politicians, who for many years saw the situation as having all the hallmarks of an insoluble political conundrum.
Based on previous MRBI data, the successful outcome on Good Friday was both timely and auspicious from the Government's viewpoint, since as late as September 1992, a majority in the Republic supported the retention of the claims in Articles 2 and 3.
However, from November 1993 onwards, the electorate gradually began to move towards changing the relevant provision to an aspiration to unity by consent and today the concept - rendered more meaningful by the signing of the agreement - is supported by a larger majority than has been evident in the recent past.
In Northern Ireland, the situation is less clear-cut, with the survey providing evidence of a significant increase in the potential No vote over the past month to almost a third, with a fifth undecided.
The reasons for supporting the No vote are also highly pertinent, while electors in both jurisdictions - particularly in Northern Ireland - are now less optimistic about the likelihood of lasting peace than was the case a month ago.
Northern Ireland
In Northern Ireland, support for the agreement has dropped by 15 points to 69 per cent, while those against have doubled from 16 per cent to 31 per cent.
These trends are significant, and, if continued over the next 10 days, could provide a close outcome (Table A). The drop in support is confined exclusively to Protestants, and is most evident among DUP supporters, where almost nine out of 10 are against the agreement, while among UUP supporters some 18 per cent have switched from supporting the agreement to being undecided.
Almost a third of UUP supporters are now in this category. However, support for the agreement is still very strong among SDLP, Sinn Fein and Alliance supporters.
The core figure of 25 per cent (31 per cent net) who are against the agreement (Table A), is very strongly upheld by the nature of the reasons given in support of this viewpoint. Very significantly, almost half (equating with 11 per cent of all electors) intend to vote No because of the release of prisoners, while a further 18 per cent (or 5 per cent of all) see the agreement as a move towards a United Ireland.
The other main reason relates to what are seen as the constitutional changes in Northern Ireland, this being mentioned by 14 per cent (4 per cent of all). The intensity of support for a No vote is also considerably greater in Northern Ireland than in the Republic, with individual average negative reasons at 1.5, compared with 1.1 in the Republic.
The Northern electorate is also much less optimistic than was the case a month ago (Table C), with those seeing the agreement as leading to lasting peace dropping from 52 per cent to 43 per cent, and those giving it a poor chance more than doubling from 15 per cent to 35 per cent.
Three in every four are happy that they have sufficient information to make their decision in the referendum, and a relatively low one in five is unhappy in this regard. The latter figure compares with one in three in the Republic. In terms of handling the debate, the SDLP is positioned ahead of all other parties, with the British government second, Sinn Fein third, and the DUP in last position.
Republic Of Ireland
From the point of view of both governments, and of all who support the agreement, the situation is considerably more favourable in the Republic than in Northern Ireland, and there is little doubt that the issue will be carried comfortably in the referendum.
However, while the potential No vote is not significant, the level of undecided is now relatively high at 23 per cent, and represents a four-point increase since the last survey four weeks ago. The main increases in this category are evident among electors aged under 34, and noticeably among Fine Gael supporters.
Those likely to vote No are primarily concerned with the resultant constitutional changes and also with the fact that it represents a continuation of partition. However, these combined elements account for single figures in the electorate and are not significant in statistical terms.
The extent to which electors see the agreement as likely to lead to a lasting peace in Northern Ireland remains at a similar level to that of four weeks ago, which is reasonably optimistic, with a marginal majority confident in this regard and one in four remaining undecided.
Although a majority is happy that sufficient information has been made available to facilitate a decision on referendum day, a third is relatively unhappy on the issue - these being primarily people under 34, and tending to be working class. In this regard, Fianna Fail, the SDLP, Sinn Fein and the British government are perceived to have handled the debate best, with the DUP making the least favourable impact.
Overview
In Overall terms, the signs are that the referendum will be comfortably carried in the Republic, although it should be pointed out that the question on voting intentions - do you intend to vote in favour or against or have you any opinion? - is not precisely as it will be in the referendum.
In this regard, the relevant ballot paper will be white, will be headed "British/Irish Agreement", and will contain the following question:
"Do you approve of the proposal to amend the Constitution contained in the under-mentioned Bill?
Nineteenth Amendment of the Constitution Bill 1998"
In Northern Ireland, the referendum question will, I understand, relate more directly to the agreement per se, and as already commented upon, the outcome is likely to be much tighter than in the Republic, should the current trend continue.
However, this week's visit by the British Prime Minister and a continuation of solid campaigning by both governments and the supporting parties should arrest the trend and see the agreement carried. (Incidentally, the ballot paper on the Amsterdam Treaty will be green, and will relate to the Eighteenth Amendment of the Constitution Bill.)