AFTER five days of intensive electioneering, involving publication of the Government's 21 goal programme and the Fianna Fail and Fine Gael manifestos, the competing party groups remain locked in a static embrace.
However, where Fianna Fail is concerned, stasis is fine, a huge improvement on other elections when support for the party plummeted once the starting gun was fired. Support for the party, excluding undecideds, has remained solid at 43 per cent for the past seven weeks. With the Progressive Democrats now on 7 per cent, there should be the makings of a government there.
By contrast, support for the Rainbow parties and specifically for the Labour Party - has drifted by two points. They are now trailing the opposition combination by 12 points, or nine points on the basis of core votes, with a little more than two weeks to go.
There are, however, some developments which could presage an upset. The Government has secured its highest satisfaction rating with the public, at 54 per cent. Support for a continuation of the Rainbow Coalition has jumped by six points to halve the 12 point gap which existed with the Fianna Fail/Progressive Democrats alternative only two weeks ago.
One of the striking aspects of the poll is that while public opinion has swung back in favour of the Government's performance and its possible continuation, there has been practically no change in the status of the parties.
It is as if the public is withholding judgment pending careful consideration of all the issues at stake.
Both Labour and the Progressive Democrats lost a single point in their core vote (it translated into two points, excluding undecideds, for Labour) but this may be a temporary blip as their manifestos had not been published when the poll was taken.
A breakdown of regional support for a combination of Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats in government, as against a Rainbow Coalition, shows a hugely volatile electorate. Two weeks ago a 12 point gap favoured the opposition parties in the Dublin region, but this has contracted to a single percentage point.
An 18 point gap in Leinster has fallen to four points and the combinations are almost neck and neck in Munster, with the Rainbow lagging by a point, compared to 14 points in early May.
ConnachtUlster is the only region to buck this trend, and here the gap for the Fianna Fail/Progressive Democrats option has increased from 21 to 25 points.
Another straw at which the Government parties will clutch has to do with voting transfers, which tend to favour the Rainbow. Fianna Fail's "plumping" tradition (only voting for party candidates) is still strong, in spite of the efforts of Mr Bertie Ahern.
While almost 80 per cent of party supporters approve of the formation of a Fianna Fail/ Progressive Democrat government, only 24 per cent of those questioned will vote for a Progressive Democrat candidate. The Progressive Democrats are much more generous, with 45 per cent prepared to vote for Fianna Fail.
On the Government side, 38 per cent of Fine Gael supporters are prepared to vote for Labour and 4 per cent for Democratic Left; 45 per cent of Labour voters will transfer to Fine Gael and 8 per cent to Democratic Left; and 28 per cent of Democratic Left support will go to Labour and 6 per cent to Fine Gael.
With a little more than two weeks to go, there is plenty of encouragement in this opinion poll for both the Government and the Fianna Fail/Progressive Democrat combinations.
The Government has improved its profile considerably in two weeks and, as it embarks on a campaign designed to offer the electorate a record of stability, economic progress and solid achievement, it could eat into the softer element of Fianna Fail's support, as well as attracting a sizeable element of the undecided vote.
Fianna Fail, on the other hand, will be buoyed by its performance in holding its vote steady during the first week of the election campaign. It will probably address the vote transfer issue at constituency level so as to maximise cooperation with the PDs.
On the basis of the surge in support for the Rainbow Coalition option, the public can expect an all out assault by the Government parties on the policy differences dividing Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats.