So here we are at last. The final year of the 20th century. When this century was born the "Ulster Question" was already a threat to any Home Rule plan, certainly a Home Rule plan for the entire island.
Now in the dying days of the century, after so much bloodshed, effort and hatred, we may just be in sight of a resolution of that problem.
Drapier believes that 1999 will be the year when the Belfast Agreement comes into its own, the structures will be set up and the new institutions given life. Out of it all will come not what anybody wanted, but at least a framework for constitutional, democratic and inclusive politics.
Domestically, Drapier is making few predictions for 1999. But he will make just a few. In June's local elections both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael will recover some of the ground lost in the last local elections.
Both parties are taking the elections seriously and have been putting in a major effort. New candidates are emerging and between that and the and so-called scrappage scheme there will be a major turnover of local councillors.
And if that happens there won't be a TD who does not soon feel the hot breath of an ambitious youngster at his neck or barking at his heels. It is no coincidence that where the party organisations see the elections in terms of renewal, the TDs of all parties see them also in terms of very real personal threat.
As for Labour, it enters the elections with a high number of seats from its good showing last time, and will be buttressed further by the additional DL seats. Labour will fight hard to hold on to its existing seats, and many will be held, but it would need a surge to the party, of which there is no evidence at present, to see it exceed the current DL/Labour figure.
For the PDs the local elections will be yet another moment of truth. Mary Harney has promised to revitalise the party and the local elections will be the first big test. All we can do is wait and see, but few in here are holding their breath.
Drapier sees little prospect of any great change in the Euroelections. Connacht-Ulster will probably stay as is - the only excitement will be the question of which Fianna Failer succeeds Mark Killilea.
The strong money at the moment is on Noel Treacy, but there is also a view in here that should Fine Gael run a strong candidate from Galway - Paul Connaughton and Fintan Coogan are the names mentioned - it could upset matters.
Munster will remain as is, and Drapier will be surprised if Pat Cox does not top the poll. In Leinster, a strong Fine Gael ticket of Alan Gillis and the redoubtable Avril Doyle, given Labour's disarray and Nuala Ahern's lowish profile, could win a second seat.
Dublin as usual will provide most of the fun. The smart money says Bernie Malone will see off Proinsias De Rossa. Drapier has his doubts.
De Rossa is a wily campaigner, streetwise and battle hardened. He was right for the electorate in 1984 and was brilliantly marketed at that time. The question is whether or not his sell-by date has passed. Otherwise Mary Banotti and Niall Andrews will do well and Drapier suspects Patricia McKenna has a strong grip on the anti-everything end of the market and will be re-elected.
The one thing that could upset all of Drapier's predictions in both local and Euro elections would be a souring of the public mood to the benefit of single issue, protest or crank candidates. Potholes, masts, hospitals, traffic, are examples and undoubtedly candidates will emerge championing such issues - and will be elected.
Drapier suspects, however, that the major parties have learned enough to run with the hare and hunt with the hounds on such issues and in the process blunt much of the momentum. Will there be a general election in 1999?
Drapier sees no good reason why there should be. The commentators who are urging Bertie Ahern to cut loose and go to the country in light of the huge poll ratings his party now enjoys are very wide of the mark.
First of all, Bertie Ahern is a very cautious man. More cautious even than his great mentor Charlie Haughey who gave in to the blandishments of Ray Burke and Padraig Flynn in 1989, picked an unnecessary election and ended up losing Fianna Fail's last "core value" and, as we all know, things have never been the same since.
Bertie knows full well that the present poll ratings mean little when a campaign starts. Cork, Limerick and Dublin North showed that. Bertie knows that once the campaign starts Fianna Fail will drop back, the public mood can change and there are absolutely no guarantees, especially if the public judges the election to be contrived or unnecessary.
Add to that the fact that the present Government is in no danger. The Independents are cemented in, the Progressive Democrats are no bother and there are few potential flash-points around which would spark off a crisis. Steady as she goes, in other words.
Drapier would add one caveat. The calling of elections is not always in the hands of the Taoiseach of the day. Events have a habit of intervening. Drapier does not see any on the horizon, but then that's the whole point about events - you are not supposed to see them until they take you by surprise, and every Taoiseach is recent times has been so ambushed.
But barring that - and it's a big "if", given that anything may fall out of the tribunals - Drapier does not expect a general election in 1999. But there are enough subplots simmering at present to ensure an exciting, event-filled year. And there is nothing we politicians like less than excitement or uncertainty. Give us certainty and predictability any day.
Meanwhile, Drapier is in a reflective mood as we enter this last year of the millennium. He believes that in spite of present difficulties and the alleged low standing of politicians, our political system is healthy and honest and can hold its head up anywhere in the world.
Drapier is not being complacent or smug when he talks thus. He knows we have a long way to go before we reach any sort of perfection and anyway, as a believer in Original Sin and the flawed nature of mankind, perfection is something that is not likely to be attained on this side of eternity. But we should not forget we rank among the dozen longest-surviving parliamentary democracies in the world. We have enjoyed almost 80 years of political stability, and all of us take for granted the permanence of our democratic system, forgetting, maybe, how fragile a plant democracy can be and how vulnerable to subversion it has been in so many other countries.
Drapier believes we are and have been lucky in our politicians. Long before the State was founded, O'Connell, Parnell, Redmond and Dillon tutored us in the ways of democracy and left firm foundations upon which to build. It is a debt easily forgotten but which should never be.
The founding fathers, W. T. Cosgrave, Patrick Hogan, Patrick McGilligan and others were just that. Founding fathers. They gave us a system rooted in probity, an incorruptible administration and utter adherence to democratic values.
Eamon de Valera has his detractors today but in Drapier's book he demanded and got from his ministers the highest standards of honesty, he gave us a Constitution of profound wisdom and helped maintain national unity at a very dangerous stage in the life of the State. Sean Lemass managed the transition to modernisation with enormous talent; Garret FitzGerald was probably the best foreign minister we ever had and held that post in the crucial early days of European membership.
Drapier is mentioning only a few. He can think of the heroic stance of James Dillon against neutrality in 1941; the crusading of Noel Browne for better health services, the lonely integrity of Jack McQuillan on the opposition benches, the moral toughness of Liam Cosgrave against his own party in 1972, even in more recent times the courage of Des O'Malley in the face of Charles Haughey in the 1980s.
Drapier does not have to go to history for his examples. The Belfast Agreement is a testimony not just to Bertie Ahern, but to John Bruton, Albert Reynolds, Dick Spring and many others who helped make it possible. Our economic success is in part due to politicians creating a framework and a mood where the right decisions could be taken.
As Drapier has said, we may be a long way from perfection but we are moving in the direction of a fairer, more humane, more sharing society. And no matter what the begrudgers say, that is a fact and yes, the politicians can take some credit.
A happy New Year.