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UUP's future/ analysis: A once-proud party bit the dust yesterday

UUP's future/ analysis: A once-proud party bit the dust yesterday. The Ulster Unionists were for decades the political backbone of the majority community in the North. Now they have been rejected by their own people.

True, they still remain one of the largest parties in a local Assembly that does not sit, but in the heavyweight contest of the Westminster elections, the UUP has suffered a crushing defeat.

Next to the army presence and the occasional royal visit, few things affirm the British connection more than the electoral contest for Northern Ireland's 18 seats in the House of Commons. Yet a party whose philosophical base rests on that connection has been decimated.

For many years Northern Ireland's largest political party, the "Official Unionists" provided the government from 1921 until the Stormont parliament was suspended by the British government in favour of direct rule from London in March 1972.

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During those 51 years the Ulster Unionists held as many as 40 of the 52 seats in the Northern Ireland House of Commons and usually held 10 out of what was then 12 Westminster seats as well.

Some unionist MPs never had to undergo an election and, when they did, the wags said that "a donkey with a sash" could have won.

The Ulster Unionists may yet recover from this crushing series of political blows inflicted by the electorate. But the outlook is not good. Even prior to this week's humiliation at the polls, the UUP had lost a significant proportion of its membership to Ian Paisley's DUP, including Lagan Valley MP Jeffrey Donaldson and other key activists.

Obviously, as leader, David Trimble will have to take much of the responsibility. History may be kind to him and say that he took a brave and necessary step seven years ago, on Good Friday, 1998, when he gave his assent to the Belfast Agreement.

This was despite a walkout on the day by Donaldson and a noisy protest march to Castle Buildings beforehand, under Paisley's leadership.

But although Trimble could be described as one of the leading politicians of ideas in our time, his personal style was not conducive to the building up and consolidation of a modern political party. Even those closest to him were highly critical of his approach.

Like many intellectuals in politics, he lacked the personal touch with his own supporters, an area where Paisley scores infinitely higher points.

All traces of the Ulster Unionist Party will not disappear overnight.

There are still areas such as Fermanagh and North Down where the UUP remains fairly strong and won't fade into oblivion - at least not yet. But the challenge is immense.

Unfortunately for the UUP, there is no obvious alternative to Trimble as leader. The name of Sylvia Hermon is not figuring prominently in speculation as yet. David Burnside has been mentioned, and some say his hardline image would help to stem further haemorrhaging to the DUP.

Sir Reg Empey has been prominent in the leadership for some time, but the few remaining "young guns" in the party might feel that he is too much in the Trimble mould.

The saddest consequence of this week's electoral drubbing for the UUP is that it puts them in distinct danger of being seen as irrelevant to the debate on the future of Northern Ireland.

They are now in the position of one of those Scottish soccer teams which, year on year, try vainly to catch up with Rangers and Celtic.

As the ballot-boxes are put away over the next few days, the focus will shift once again to the negotiating table. Few doubt that Tony Blair will make one more major effort to achieve closure on the Northern Ireland conflict, thereby ensuring his place in the history books.

In that endeavour it may well be that the UUP are mere spectators but, if the deal is finally done and peace and stability guaranteed for the next generation and beyond, even those who would never have dreamt of voting for them may have reason to be grateful to David Trimble and his supporters in the party.