Still leader, but his future remains uncertain

On the face of it, David Trimble escaped lightly

On the face of it, David Trimble escaped lightly. With the loss of three Westminster and 31 council seats a fortnight ago, it wasn't a good time to be facing his party's ruling body.

Yet there was no challenge at Saturday's Ulster Unionist Council meeting, and the mood inside the Ulster Hall in Belfast was free from the tension that has marked previous gatherings. Only 15 of the 720 delegates walked out when Mr Trimble began his leadership address.

There was no overt criticism from the two leading anti-agreement MPs, Jeffrey Donaldson and David Burnside, when they emerged later. No hecklers awaited Mr Trimble as he left the building. The only sign of opposition was a grubby little banner saying: "David Trimble - Yesterday's Man. Who will lead the UUP into the future?"

Yet it is a question many delegates were discussing privately. Mr Trimble is hanging on to power by the narrowest of margins and only, his opponents say, by moving more into their territory in his line on decommissioning.

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Every UUP politician stressed the need for unity but, in reality, the party is as split as ever. The divisions did not emerge publicly on Saturday because there was no opportunity for debate. A series of elections took place for internal positions and then Mr Trimble delivered his address. Up to a third of delegates refused to join in the standing ovation for him.

The leadership was evidently worried about the response to Mr Trimble from party grassroots because the press was barred from the entire meeting. The anti-agreement wing secured a significant victory when the Rev Martin Smyth defeated Lord Rogan, a close Trimble ally, for UUP president.

Mr Trimble might have survived at the weekend but it could be at the price of being a lame duck leader.

"If the institutions are suspended and there is another round of negotiations in the summer," a colleague says, "he would be vulnerable if he attempted to sell a new deal to the party which involved returning to government with Sinn Fein in the absence of a substantial move on decommissioning."

A leading anti-agreement figure says: "We believe that despite his tough words Trimble wants to compromise on decommissioning. We are hoping to tie his hands so comprehensively that he can't."

Observers believe there will be another UUC meeting in the autumn where Mr Trimble could face a leadership challenge. Hardline anti-agreement activists, including the Young Unionists, were frustrated that Mr Donaldson did not stand against him on Saturday.

They are threatening to leave the party if he doesn't launch a challenge this year. "If we leave, the pro-agreement wing would be strengthened and Jeffrey's leadership prospects seriously damaged," says a source.

"He needs us to hang in there for our votes, but the time has come for him to show leadership qualities. The situation where Trimble continually survives by the skin of his teeth can't continue. We are working to bring the whole leadership issue and the future direction of the party to a head.

"We want an Armageddon situation where the UUP decides once and for all where it is going."

Mr Donaldson refused to be drawn on his leadership ambitions on Saturday but he stressed that without decommissioning the UUC needed to meet again in the autumn. Significantly, he presented a united front with Mr David Burnside, inviting the new South Antrim MP to join him at his press conference.

Opinion is divided on whether Mr Trimble would voluntarily step down as leader if the institutions remained suspended after the summer. Some believe he would stay, telling the UUC he had adhered to his word by resigning as First Minister and it had no need to remove him. Others believe he is so identified with the Belfast Agreement that its collapse would damage him so much that he couldn't continue as leader.

Much of Mr Trimble's clout comes from his role as First Minister. As UUP leader his position is weak. Only one of his five MPs, Lady Hermon, is clearly pro-agreement. Mr Burnside, Mr Donaldson and the Rev Martin Smyth are outspoken opponents, and Mr Roy Beggs is very much on the fence.

Mr Trimble might have survived for the moment, but unless the Provisional IRA makes a significant move on decommissioning, his political future remains highly uncertain.