THE Garda recorded 99,727 crimes in 1984 and 101,036 in 1994. In between the number dropped to 85,000 in 1987. At a "glance these figures do not show a pattern of dramatic increase in crime.
The Garda figures do not give the level of overall crime, only those reported to the Garda. They are therefore of some use in making comparisons between different years, but cannot be taken as a reliable measure of the actual crime level in the State.
Nor does the total crime figure give a reliable measure of serious crime. It includes everything from murder to petty larceny. A small decrease in the number of burglaries (32,740 recorded in 1994) could therefore mask a proportionally very large rise in the murder rate (25 in 1994).
But this is not happening. In 1994 the murder figure was 25, as it was in 1992 and 1984. It rose as high as 46 in 1987, and dropped to 17 in 1990. When the official murder figure for last year is arrived at, it is expected to be close to 30. There is no obvious pattern, here.
A considerable number of recent murders can be attributed to territorial disputes in the drugs trade and to family conflicts. This and the figures, do not point to a dramatic increase in the number of random killings.
From 1993 to 1994 there was a 9 per cent increase in sexual offences: 184 women were raped, compared with 143 the previous year. There were just 73 reported or known rapes in 1985.
But this does not mean there are more rapes; only that more are being reported to the Garda. "We don't know if there are more rapes being carried but this year than five years ago, said the director of the Rape Crisis Centre, Ms Olive Braiden.
People are much more aware now of the services available for victims of rape and sexual assault, she said. Therefore many more victims than before area reporting to the Rape Crisis Centre and to the Garda.
She would be "loath" to say there was an increase in rape.
"But the violence carried out by rapists has increased and multiplied," she said. "The attacks appear to be more frenzied. There is a big problem now of violence against anyone vulnerable - women, children and the old."
The same pattern may be emerging from the figures for attacks on the elderly. There has been a dramatic decrease in such attacks, according to Mr Pat Doyle, of Muintir na Tire - from 432 in 1984 to 118 in 1988 and just 69 in 1994.
But there is a perception backed up by anecdotal evidence that the violence and brutality of such attacks have increased. There were some particularly vicious attacks on old people in the early to mid 1980s, as there have been in recent weeks.
"The viciousness in the last few weeks could be a temporary thing, as it was in 1984 and 1985," Mr Doyle said. "Some of it may be drug related . . . by people who don't have full control over themselves.
"The hysteria that's going around is doing a lot of damage to old people, who will never be broken into.
The figures for armed robbery show the clearest rise of all serious crimes. There were 86 armed robberies in 1985 and 179 in 1994. The number of aggravated burglaries (burglaries with violence) in 1994 fell by 20 per cent on 1993. However, other robberies involving firearms rose by 38 per cent.
The Minister for Justice has received more opposition criticism than any other Minister in this Government. The Progressive Democrats' spokeswoman on justice, Ms Liz O'Donnell, said yesterday that she did not believe the present tear about crime could be dismissed as "hype".
She said: "There is a huge dark area of crime. Many people area burgled several times and don't bother reporting it any more. Reality as experienced by most people is frightening, and the Minister should be addressing that fear. As TDs we are in constant contact with people who are telling us that they are fearful."
She agreed that a "more tabloid form" of crime coverage had been developing. "I dislike the tabloid approach to crime, just as I dislike the tabloid approach to politicians." But that was a problem to be sorted out by the media themselves, she said.
Dr Art O'Connor, consultant forensic psychiatrist at Dublin's Central Mental Hospital, wrote last week in the Irish Independent that there was now more nastiness and viciousness in crimes, with little or no remorse for victims. Much more violence than necessary is commonly used, he said.
A psychologist, Dr Paul O'Mahony, wrote in this newspaper last year that there had been a marked change in the type, if not the level, of serious violence in the State. Nevertheless, we still remained "one of the most law abiding and least violence ridden of developed societies".
As debate continues on possible reform of the bail laws, the latest figures - again for 1994 - show that one in 23 offences is committed by people on bail. This may appear a surprisingly small figure given the level of public concern, but it shows an increase of 38 per cent on 1993.
A final cautionary word about Garda statistics is necessary apparent major changes may not necessarily be causes for alarm.
Crime in Donegal, for example, rose by 15 per cent in 1994 over 1993, and it went up in Laois/ Offaly by 20 per cent. In the same year, crime fell by 11 per cent in Sligo/Leitrim and by 11 per cent in Galway city.