IN HOLLYWOOD, the anticipation is palpable. It's Oscar time and the town is buzzing. In the Beverly Hilton hotel, zealous staff members interrogate anyone who lingers around the lobby too long, lest they might intend to harass any of the VIPs passing through the building. In the exclusive shopping district of Rodeo Drive, meanwhile, swollen packs of paparazzi photographers lie in wait behind every palm tree and SUV, writes EOIN BUTLER, in Hollywood
Outside the Kodak Theatre, at the intersection of Hollywood Boulevard and North Highland Avenue, traffic has been blocked off and bleachers erected to accommodate the crowds expected for Sunday’s awards ceremony.
But for now, security remains low key. Tourists gawp and the usual parade of costumed movie geeks slope by unmolested. Inside the venue, frantic last-minute preparations continue apace, with staff applying gold spray paint to the giant Oscar statues lining the red carpet area.
Away from Hollywood, however, the global appetite for this annual spectacle of glamour and decadence appears to be waning. With US television ratings for the annual telecast having fallen year-on-year (from a recent high of 57.3 million in 1998 to an all-time low of 31.8 million last year), it will take a lot more than some aerosol cans to restore the event’s faded lustre.
There are a myriad theories to explain Oscar's declining popularity. This week's Hollywood Reporteropines that the modern Oscars have become too sanitised and PR-oriented to make compelling viewing. The more licentious era of the 1970s, it argues – when Marlon Brando sent a Native American activist to accept his Oscar for The Godfather, and Bert Schneider used his acceptance speech for the Vietnam documentary Hearts and Mindsto read a statement from the Viet Cong – made for more compelling viewing.
The reception afforded to Michael Moore’s Bush-baiting acceptance speech in 2003 casts some doubt over that theory. But that the modern Oscars have become overly sanitised is, nonetheless, indisputable. Today it has become the norm for actors to campaign vigorously behind the scenes for nominations and awards. But at the same time, public politicking has become taboo. In 2002, Russell Crowe fatally damaged his own Oscar hopes when he pinned a hapless TV producer against a wall at the Baftas for having the temerity to cut a poetry recitation from the broadcast.
That much seemed reasonable. But, nowadays, sensitivities have become so acute that one leading British commentator even fretted over whether Kate Winslet momentarily forgetting Angelina Jolie’s name during her Golden Globe acceptance speech would damage her Oscar prospects.
The most common complaint, though, being made about this year’s ceremony is about how predictable the awards are shaping up to be, with bookies offering some of the shortest-ever odds in a host of leading categories.
In the best picture category, momentum favours the well-liked, but hardly earth-shattering drama Slumdog Millionaireover it's (justifiably) much disparaged rival The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.
The best director award, meanwhile, is likely to play out the same way, with Slumdog'sDanny Boyle taking the Oscar ahead of David Fincher for Benjamin Button. Fincher's film was reportedly the first screened in the White House since last month's presidential inauguration. But even here in liberal Hollywood, the Obama imprimatur is unlikely to halt Slumdog's progress. The other films nominated in these categories – Milk, Frost/Nixonand The Reader– are expected to pick up consolation prizes elsewhere.
In the acting categories there are a number of intriguing subplots to be played out. But the likelihood of any major surprises remains remote.
Hollywood's most glamorous couple, Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie, are both up for the top acting awards for the first time in their careers (for Benjamin Buttonand Changelingrespectively). Alas, both are likely to go home empty handed, with Mickey Rourke ( The Wrestler) and Kate Winslet ( The Reader) the most widely tipped to win out.
A more novel double-header yet would be if two of Hollywood's most notorious wild men, Rourke and Robert Downey Jr, were to clean up in the male acting categories (Downey Jr is nominated as best supporting actor for his blackface role in Tropic Thunder). Unfortunately, this also looks a long shot, with bookmakers Paddy Power offering preposterous odds of 1/100 on the Heath Ledger to pick up a posthumous supporting actor award for his performance as the Joker in Christopher Nolan's The Dark Knight.
Indeed, if any major upset is on the cards this year, it might well be Rourke who loses out. Ever since the nominations were announced, the actor has been the favourite to win best actor for his turn as washed-up wrestler Randy “The Ram” Robinson. Hollywood loves a tale of redemption and, on the surface, Rourke seems like the ultimate bad boy made good.
When he picked up the best actor gong at the Baftas last month, the veteran actor thanked director Darren Aronofsky for giving him a second chance in his career, after "15 years of f**king up". But later that night, he posed for photographs on the red carpet drinking champagne from the bottle. The next morning, the tabloids reported him making unsuccessful advances upon a bevy of starlets. It seems that Rourke, like his character in The Wrestler, remains a character either unwilling or incapable of learning from his own mistakes.
If Rourke does lose out the most likely beneficiary is Hollywood golden boy Sean Penn, for his excellent turn as Harvey Milk.
The leading contender for the best-actress award is Kate Winslet, who showed up at the US-Ireland Alliance dinner in Los Angeles on Thursday night to honour her Irish agent, Hylda Queally. Introducing her, emcee Charles Koones pointed out that previous attendees William Monahan (screenwriter for The Departed) and Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova (Once) went on to pick up awards three days later. Nominated for her role in The Reader, Winslet would have cause to feel aggrieved if she doesn't finally win on this occasion.
Winslet has been nominated six times, and failure to pick up an Oscar this time would leave her behind only Peter O’Toole and Richard Burton (eight and seven nominations respectively ) for the most number of acting nominations without a win.