Stability forecast despite prospect of power struggle for succession

DENG Xiaoping has left his chosen successor, Jiang Zemin (70), with three titles - general secretary of the Communist Party, …

DENG Xiaoping has left his chosen successor, Jiang Zemin (70), with three titles - general secretary of the Communist Party, head of the Red Army, and State President. But with his death on Wednesday there is now much talk of a power struggle in China and criticism of Deng himself for tailing to ensure a smooth succession.

The reason for this apparent contradiction lies in China's tradition of often allowing real power to rest in the hands of figures behind the scene. This dates to the days when emperors would let their eunuchs run the court. In the communist world, where popular mandates do not exist, real power depends not just on the barrel of a gun but in networks of connections which the Chinese call guanxi.

The prospect of a power struggle raises questions about China's stability, but in modern China, any such contest following Deng's death is likely to be more like a boardroom battle. It will be about management and personalities, rather than ideology, according to China observers.

Deng's success was so overwhelming that he created a consensus on the basic direction of economic policy, foreign policy and Hong Kong policy, said William Overholt, managing director of Bankers Trust in Hong Kong, adding: "None of these things is under challenge and we are going to see political stability in China."

READ MORE

Other China experts agree that the very success of Deng's policy in turning the world's most populous country into an economic power after the chaos of the mid-century years has left his heirs with little room for manoeuvre as the alternatives do not bear contemplation.

Deng concluded and argued that communism should not be equated with poverty and the only way to sustain the Communist Party's right to rule was through fast economic reform. Now, as analyst David Mahon, of Mahon Associates, put it, "the Chinese Communist Party depends on economic reform to sustain its own mandate".

So while Deng's death may signal a back-stage struggle, the manoeuvring brings little economic risk. At stake may be the character of foreign policy. Jiang's position as head of the army does not mean he has the full support of top military commanders, some of whom are hawkish on issues such as Taiwan.

The party credentials of Jiang are also not as impressive as his mentor's. He came from Shanghai only seven years ago and lacks the Chinese version of "inside the beltway" connections which are so important in Beijing.

His strength lies in the absence of an immediate rival, though a serious competitor has about seven months to mount a challenge at the 15th Communist Party Congress, which will take place in the autumn and set the course for China as it enters the 21st century.

Several figures already occupy prominent positions should they wish to mount a challenge. They include Premier Li Peng (69), the adopted son of the legendary Chou En-lai. Mr Li is an important member of the leadership but suffers from the odium which he attracted to himself by taking a prominent role in the suppression of pro-democracy demonstrators in Tiananmen Square in June 1989.

His colleague, vice-president Zhu Rongji (69), who is sometimes called China's Gorbachev because of his identification with reforms, has played a prominent role as an architect of economic change. But he, too, is from the provinces - he is a former mayor of Shanghai - and may not have sufficient guanxi within the party.

Someone who does have a unique control over information about members of the party is Qiao Shi (73), the head of the parliament and a close ally of Deng Xiaoping, who was once responsible for running the security apparatus which keeps files on almost everyone.

One of the most unlikely figures seeking to adopt Deng's mantle is Peng Zhen (95), who was mayor of Beijing for 15 years and still appears occasionally in a wheelchair. He has to be reckoned with because of his vast network of connections built up as chairman of the National People's Congress.

Not much younger is another aspirant for the vacant patriarch position, Yang Shangkum (90), a former military figure who has already tried before to use his close relations with Deng Xiaoping to assume supreme power. His moment may have passed, however, and he too was very closely associated with the suppression of the pro-democracy movement in 1989.

This leaves an interesting outsider, Zhao Ziyang (78), who pioneered economic reform in concert with Deng Xiaoping but is now in disgrace because he identified too closely with the students.

President Jiang has more than half a year to consolidate his position. A sign to the world that he had managed to do this would be if he acquires - as he is said to desperately want - a fourth hat at the 15th party congress, that of chairman, which would link him with Mao Zedong, the last supreme leader to hold this title. Then people would know who is boss.