SOUTH AFRICA:South Africa's department of health has published alarming new HIV/Aids figures that put the number of infected people in the country by the end of last year at up to 6.57 million.
The new figures, which were released last Friday, are likely to increase the political controversy surrounding the issue as the government's official statistics agency estimated last May that the number of people infected with HIV/Aids in South Africa was around 4.5 million - nearly one third lower than the department's estimate.
The accuracy of Statistic SA's annual figures have repeatedly been questioned in the past by the HIV/Aids advocacy organisations, who claim the government is dragging its heels in tackling the epidemic.
One such group, the Treatment Action Campaign (TAC), has been extremely critical of the government's slow roll out of anti-retroviral programme needed to combat the disease. General secretary, Mark Heywood, said that while his organisation had yet to study the report in full, he believed the results showed that the HIV/Aids epidemic in South Africa was continuing.
"The report shows there were 500,000 new infections in South Africa between 2003 and 2004. Although the government tries to suggest a level of comfort in the figures levelling off as time progresses, we would maintain that such an outcome is due to the nature of the disease and it does not mean the preventative programmes are having the desired impact," he told The Irish Times.
According to the department's HIV and Syphilis Antenatal Sero-prevalence survey the actual figure for HIV/Aids infection in South Africa is between 6.29 million and 6.57 million people.
HIV/Aids is South Africa's most pressing health challenge and the annual survey of pregnant women attending government antenatal clinics is government's most important indicator of the progression of the epidemic.
It serves as a critical gauge of the effectiveness of government's efforts to prevent new infections, and is an essential tool for policy makers.
When asked which groups' figures were the more reliable Mr Heywood chose the department of health's as they are based on extrapolations from actual HIV/Aids testing, while Statistic SA's figures are compiled using a module. "This is the 14th survey carried out by the department of health so it would be fair to say the methodology used has a track record and is likely to be more accurate than the figures released by Statistic's SA a couple of months ago," he said. The department's report shows that 29.4 per cent of pregnant women attending government clinics last year were infected with HIV, up from 27.9 per cent in 2003 and 26.5 per cent in 2002.
Last year's figures prompted the department to speculate that the epidemic might be slowing, but the latest data suggest this is not happening. In fact, the prevalence rates of HIV measured among pregnant women rose in all age groups from 2003 to 2004.
The report also shows women in their early 20s and 30s are the most vulnerable, with 38.5 per cent of pregnant women aged 25-29 infected with the HIV virus.
The survey found wide provincial variations, with HIV prevalence among pregnant women increasing in all the provinces except Free State, North West and Mpumalanga.