European Monetary Affairs Commissioner Mr Pedro Solbes said in an interview published today a war in Iraq constituted an "exceptional situation" under the European Union's Stability and Growth Pact.
The interview with French daily
Les Echos
yesterday was published after the United States began a war to oust Saddam Hussein with targeted strikes around Baghdad.
"We considered, for example, that last year's floods in Germany constituted an exceptional situation. A war clearly fits into this category," Mr Solbes told the newspaper.
"The problem is to understand how to take this into account for deficits. There can be different interpretations," he said, adding that the EU would examine the situation in countries with excessive deficits at the appropriate time.
Germany, France and Portugal have broken the EU's deficit limit of 3 per cent of gross domestic product, triggering disciplinary action whose ultimate sanction is a fine.
The Stability Pact was designed to impose fiscal discipline on member countries from the launch of Europe's single currency in 1999.
"If the main result of the war is a temporary rise in oil prices for one or two quarters, the impact will be relatively weak: half a [percentage] point in growth at the most with a return to nominal inflation," Mr Solbes told Les Echos, asked about the risk of recession in the euro currency zone.
"For me this is the most probable scenario - a short war and a temporary impact on oil prices before they come down," he added.