Spending on social welfare, before any Budget increases, is expected to be £5,162 million next year. This represents a rise of 3.4 per cent on the expected figure for this year, which will be lower than originally estimated because of the fall in unemployment.
The Estimates for next year give no clues as to what will happen in the Budget. They are based on the cost of keeping services and payments at their present levels and further significant rises will be announced on Budget day.