Slight rise in unemployment rate

The latest  figures from the Central Statistics Office reveal that the number of people on the Live Register fell by over 16,…

The latest  figures from the Central Statistics Office reveal that the number of people on the Live Register fell by over 16,000 since last month.

According to the latest CSO figures, there were 423,639 people signing on the Live Register during September compared to 440,056 last month, a drop of 16,417. There were 240,217 people on the Live Register in September 2008.

However, when the figures are seasonally adjusted, there was an increase of 600 people on the register to 429,400 in September.

The CSO reports that in the year to September 2009, there was an unadjusted increase of 183,422 (+76.4 per cent), which compares with an unadjusted increase of 192,672 in the year to August 2009.

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In the seasonally adjusted monthly increase, there was a decrease of 400 males and an increase of 1,000 females.

The average net weekly increase in the seasonally adjusted series in September was 150, which compares with a figure of 1,350 in the previous month, the CSO reported.

The standardised unemployment rate in September was 12.6 per cent, which compares to 11.6 per cent in the second quarter of 2009, the latest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate from the Quarterly National Household Survey.

During September, the estimated number of casual and part-time workers on the Live Register was 38,268 males and 32,590 females.

The Live Register is not intended to measure unemployment. It includes part-time workers (those who work up to three days a week), and seasonal and casual workers entitled to Jobseekers Benefit or Allowance.

Unemployment is measured by the Quarterly National Household Survey, and the latest seasonally adjusted figure, for April to June 2009, is 259,500 unemployed.

Leo Varadkar of Fine Gael said the figures were "no cause for celebration".

"Unemployed workers are leaving the country or staying on in education, which is why the latest live register figures [are] showing a levelling off," Fine Gael's employment spokesman said "Unemployment is stuck at 12.6 per cent, the third highest in the euro zone."

Labour spokesman on employment Willie Penrose welcomed the Live Register drop but warned there could be "no grounds for complacency in Government".

"The Live Register figures traditionally go down in September with the reopening of schools and colleges, and there must be a fear that the figures will begin to rise again as we enter the winter months," he said.

Dr Ronnie O'Toole, chief economist at National Irish Bank, said the latest figures showed that the economic outlook is brightening. "This is adding to the growing evidence of a surprisingly fast end to the economic decline, and increases the possibility that the recession has now ended," he said.

Business group Ibec said the latest figures were "a welcome relief".

"The September Live Register is much better than consensus expectations and shows the smallest increase since early 2008, " said Ibec senior economist Fergal O'Brien. "Nevertheless jobs are still being lost in domestic sectors and the improvement in the Live Register in September is most likely partly due to an increase in emigration."