The peace process never runs smooth: the only surprise is when there are no surprises. Somehow or other the two governments and the parties will have to find a way of making the negotiations, or at least the settlement coming out of them, shockproof.
On the face it, there seems no way out of moving to expel Sinn Fein when the talks resume in Dublin on Monday. The Chief Constable has spoken, let no dog bark.
Unlike the Ulster Democratic Party, Sinn Fein shows no sign of going quietly. It will not be a pretty sight, except perhaps to unionists who will be trying hard not to take public pleasure in the spectacle.
Already one envisages the media scrum, the angry press conferences and the discontent on the greener fringes of Fianna Fail. The setting is unfortunate from Dublin's point of view: republicans being ejected by a native government from the seat of the former colonial administration. It's going to play very badly in west Belfast, the Bogside and all the other heartlands. But if there is sufficient reason to believe that the IRA killed Robert Dougan and Brendan Campbell, the two governments will grit their teeth and push Sinn Fein out. Commenting on the likely media fallout, a weary Dublin source said resignedly that Sinn Fein "will beat us up with their mandate".
Attention is being focused on the quality of the evidence on which Mr Ronnie Flanagan based his assessment that the IRA was involved in the murders. Dublin administration sources said they would like to see the colour of the Chief Constable's money before making a definitive decision on what to do. The SDLP has also been cautious, and it seems likely there will have to be incontrovertible evidence of IRA guilt if the expulsion is to go ahead.
There was speculation in Belfast yesterday that the IRA might bring out another statement, more clear-cut than the one issued on Thursday night. If there was either an IRA or Sinn Fein disavowal of the killings it might help save the day. Although there are broad similarities with the case of the Ulster Democratic Party, there are also significant differences. In the first place, the Ulster Freedom Fighters had admitted their actions; secondly, the UDP gave in without much of a fight. The IRA has not admitted the Dougan and Campbell killings, and Sinn Fein leaders, judging from their press conference on Thursday, are in combative mood.
Great interest was aroused by the statement of Mr Gerry Adams at the Conway Mill press conference, that those who carried out the killings should publicly accept responsibility.
Mr Adams does not make such remarks lightly, and there was speculation that he might have been preparing the ground for a further statement from one or other wing of the mainstream republican movement on the issue: a statement that would somehow let Sinn Fein off the hook and enable it to stay in the talks.
However, there is certain to be angry reaction from the unionists if the case against Sinn Fein does not proceed in strict accordance with the rules. There is a contingent of some 14 leading members of the Ulster Unionist Party on its way to the talks this Monday. This is said to be a source of some gratification to Dublin.
Conversely, Dublin will suffer considerable embarrassment if the unionists turn tail and head back to Belfast, denouncing the Taoiseach and all his works and pomps on the way.
The Dublin administration is caught between the rock of unionism and the hard place of Sinn Fein. Oddly, no matter what happens the unionists and Sinn Fein come out winning. Mr Trimble's image as a tough, uncompromising leader will be enhanced in good time for the UUP leadership election next month. For Sinn Fein to remain in the process would be a diplomatic triumph for Mr Adams; the more likely expulsion could well see an upsurge in support for the party among angry Northern nationalists.
Sources warned that the Dublin Castle outcome is not a foregone conclusion. There may yet be some "wriggle room" and no better man than Bertie Ahern to find it, if he is so disposed. "We'll have to see the evidence, we'll have to satisfy ourselves. It's a joint decision. We have not agreed to kick out Sinn Fein: we have an open mind," Dublin sources said.
Unionists never wanted Sinn Fein in the process and now see a golden opportunity to be rid of the turbulent republicans. Dr Mo Mowlam and Mr Ronnie Flanagan were left with little room to manoeuvre by the UUP this week. Some would argue that the normal process of law has been politicised and this could have consequences further down the road.
There is cynicism in parts of the nationalist community over the speed with which the IRA was blamed for this week's killings, and a contrast has been drawn with the more circumspect approach taken, as nationalists see it, when loyalist killings are at issue.
There has been much theorising as to why the IRA would want to go back to war, if that is in fact what happened. The most widelyheld view is that the republicans felt under pressure to respond to the wave of sectarian killings since Christmas, in a climate where the INLA was gaining ground and the Thirty-Two County Sovereignty Committee was alleging a sellout in the talks.
But a "no claim, no blame" policy is traditionally associated with loyalists, not the IRA, which makes the absence of any admission of responsibility up to now all the more interesting and Mr Adams's Thursday comments all the more intriguing.
If indeed Sinn Fein is excluded next week, the widespread belief is that, provided there are no IRA killings, the party's time in purdah will be short, perhaps three or four weeks. The likely return of the UDP less than a month after its departure has set the precedent. Sinn Fein's period in the wilderness could well be over in time for Mr Adams and Mr Martin McGuinness to shake President Clinton's hand in the White House on St Patrick's Day.
There have been few suggestions of a split in the IRA, although there is speculation that discipline may not be what it was. Nor is there much reason to believe at this stage that the ceasefire is about to come to a definitive end before a settlement is on the table.
But there are indications that the grassroots of the movement have not yet arrived at a fully realistic assessment of what can be achieved and what is simply not possible in the current negotiations.
Because even if Sinn Fein spends the next four weeks in the television studios instead of at Castle Buildings, there is not much doubt that the party will be back at the table and could well have to make up its mind about a settlement package before summer.