Insiders believe the Provisional IRA, will effectively stand down within weeks. Suzanne Breen, Senior Northern Correspondent, looks at whay's left for the notorious organisation
They said it would never go away but it looks like it just might. It was once the most dangerous guerrilla organisation in the world, set up to overthrow the state. It killed more than 1,780 people in the process.
Its members faced prison and death but continued to believe they could achieve victory. Yet, they didn't. The Northern Ireland state is still going strong and the Provisional IRA, as we know it, seems to be coming to an end.
Senior republican sources indicate there will be a major statement released, within eight weeks, effectively saying the IRA is standing down its active service units. The British government could then move to legalise the organisation. The Provisionals would still exist, but as a type of old boys' association, concentrating on activities such as unveiling plaques and building gardens of remembrance to fallen comrades.
The destruction of a substantial amount of weapons is also expected. The IRA might even agree to filming this in what is jokingly called a "Steven Spielberg act of decommissioning".
It is also understood Sinn Féin could make the historic decision of signing up to a partitionist police force by joining the North's Policing Board.
Sinn Féin leaders say the speculation is "unhelpful" but, significantly, don't deny major developments are afoot. While mainstream society would undoubtedly welcome such momentous changes, the mood is more ambivalent in republican areas.
Among Belfast IRA members, there is caution, disbelief and some resignation.
"I've been in the army \ 19 years," says one Andersonstown activist. "That's my entire adult life. It's very difficult to believe it's just going to become a commemorative committee or historical group. But I've every faith in Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness. They've brought us a long way. Wherever they take us is good enough for me."
Another activist says he would reluctantly accept the changes.
"If I'm honest, I didn't think back in 1994 we would have ended up like this. I would never have went along with the ceasefire if I'd foreseen such little progress towards getting the Brits out.
"I thought we would be heading towards a united Ireland. I'd have called anybody a liar who had suggested we would sit in Stormont or disarm, let alone wind up. Things aren't the way I'd like, but we're too far down the road to turn back."
A disillusioned member in north Belfast says: "I won't be waiting to be disbanded, I'll resign first and I'll tell the leadership exactly what I think of them. They are lying bastards who have destroyed this struggle."
He will never support the Police Service of Northern Ireland. "The PSNI are the renamed RUC. Sinn Féin can stand its own policy on its head but it won't make any difference to the people of Ardoyne. How could we support those who tortured us for decades? A few Catholics joining will change nothing."
He claims the leadership has "rigged the IRA, promoting its supporters and sidelining those who are critical so now all at the top are 'Ye's men".
Another north Belfast member says it's unbelievable "at a time when loyalists are attacking this community, we are even considering decommissioning or saying the 'armed struggle' is over for good. It's a sell-out."
A south Belfast activist disagrees. "The peace process is the way forward for our community, and new tactics are needed to save it. Unionists don't want the IRA to be bold and imaginative. So when we are, they will be the losers. They will be running around like headless chickens." He would have no problem joining the police. "Maybe if Catholics had joined in the beginning, things wouldn't have been as bad as they were."
Dissident organisations such as the "Real" and "Continuity IRA" claim the Provisionals have abandoned republicanism.
On the issue of decommissioning, they highlight General Order No 11 in the Green Book, the IRA rule-book, which states any volunteer "who seizes or is party to the seizure of arms, ammunition or explosives being held under army control shall be deemed guilty of treason". The penalty is "death".
Dissidents accuse the leadership of flouting the rules. Yet the failure of both the "Real" and "Continuity IRA" to mount a sustained armed campaign in the North has damaged their credibility among republicans. "They are not seen as alternatives," says one disillusioned Provisional. "The only place for people like me to go is home."
Before the 1994 ceasefire, the IRA had about 300 members on active service - that is engaged in shooting and bombing. It's reckoned up to a further 1,200 people were involved in other activities - intelligence-gathering, security, training, finance, education, recruitment, engineering and the acquisition of arms. Republican sources say the IRA has continued recruiting in recent years, to maintain its strength and prevent an influx to dissident organisations.
According to the Green Book, supreme authority in the IRA rests with the "army convention". This is a meeting of around 70-150 delegates, elected by the entire membership. It adopts rule changes and chooses a 12-member IRA executive, which in turn selects a seven-member army council responsible for conducting the war.
However, during the peace process substantial power has been transferred from the army convention and executive to the army council, which now makes all major decisions. Three of its seven members are Sinn Féin elected representatives from Belfast, Derry, and the South.
Senior republican sources say the remaining members are also in agreement with the Sinn Féin leadership's policies. "There is no dissension at this level. What Adams and McGuinness want, the army council delivers." IRA grassroots meetings to discuss political strategy have been going on for several months, and more are expected in coming weeks.
"The views of volunteers will be heard, but there are no votes," says the source.
"Final decisions lie with the army council. Volunteers have aired serious reservations. This is new territory for us all, but we can meet the challenges and remain united. Divisions only play into the hands of our enemies."
Although, in recent years, the IRA has ceased military activity against the security forces, it has continued intelligence-gathering, fund-raising and procuring weapons. Until now, the policy has been to keep the organisation "ticking over" so members can be told a return to "armed struggle" is viable if the peace process fails.
Since the ceasefire, the Provisionals have become increasingly profit orientated.
They are still involved in traditional fund-raising activities, such as taxi depots, cigarette smuggling, the illegal drinks trade, slot machines and video game and CD pirating.
It is unanimously agreed in Republican areas that they are not involved in drugs.
But they are also moving into legal businesses. Republican sources say businessmen are approached with cash to buy property and legitimate businesses in their name for the IRA.
In return for fronting the enterprise, they receive either 20 per cent of its profits or a similar share when it is sold.
It's understood the IRA owns several pubs in Belfast and Derry. These activities are unlikely to stop regardless of other future changes.
While the IRA as an organisation is thriving financially, some of its members also appear to benefiting on a smaller scale.
"People who have never had a legitimate job are now driving expensive new cars," says one Ballymurphy resident. "Nothing flash - like Mercs or BMWs - because that would get up people's noses. Just top-of-the-range family saloons." While senior IRA members haven't moved out of their own areas, a taxi-driver says changes to their homes are noticeable: "You know the Provisional houses from the big bay windows and the leather sofas in the front room".
Two army council members have built luxurious holiday homes in Co Donegal.
Another senior IRA member, who is also an elected representative, owns four houses - one in Co Donegal and three in west Belfast.
Former IRA prisoner Anthony McIntyre, who served 18 years in the H-Blocks, opposes a return to "armed struggle" but is a staunch critic of the leadership.
"There is a huge gap between the lifestyle of the leadership and the led, which wasn't the case when the IRA was set up in 1970," he says.
"We all wore denim and duffel coats back then. Now they have their summer houses and country villas across the Border. Very few ordinary people in these estates live like that. Former prisoners, not fully behind the leadership, earn a pittance as labourers and brickies. There are a lot of people dissatisfied with the way things have turned out. But the mood is more cynical than rebellious."