Shift of power in Limerick likely after election

Local area profile - Limerick City: Everyone agrees about the big issue in Limerick. "Anti-social behaviour" is the usual description for a problem that includes everything from petty crime to vandalism; public drunkenness to gangs on corners; street fighting to, in the words of one election worker, "sheer wanton stupidity".

Elderly people are cowering in their houses at night, all parties report, and young people are afraid to go into the city centre.

Not many observers think the issue will make a big difference to the outcome of the local elections here, however.

After all, the headline result in 1999 was the poll-topping performance in Ward 3 of Independent candidate Mr Michael Kelly, now seriously ill after a shooting incident at his mother's house last month.

With numerous previous convictions himself, Mr Kelly had campaigned mainly on the crime issue, and what he saw as the abandonment by gardaí of his own South Hill area. He even promised to organise patrols.

But the effort never got off the ground, and his council career ended in ignominy in 2002, when he resigned before being found guilty of VAT and income tax fraud after an investigation by the Criminal Assets Bureau.

Although his replacement as councillor, Ms Lilly Wallace, is well liked, she will struggle to hold the seat, which will now probably revert to Labour in what was Jim Kemmy's old stronghold.

Elsewhere, results could be decided mainly by personalities, and in this respect Fianna Fáil does not have a strong hand this time around.

In the five-seat Ward 1, four of the outgoing councillors look secure, the exception being Fianna Fáil's Mr Michael Ryan who replaced Mr Peter Power TD after the dual mandate ban.

The party has brought in a second candidate in the form of Mr Joe Collopy to try and shore up support. Yet everybody agrees that the last seat will be a free-for-all, with FG, the PDs and even Sinn Féin in with a shout.

Sinn Féin has little or no base in Limerick City, however, and its candidate here, Mr Maurice Quinlivan - brother of IRA man and Brixton Prison escapee Nessan - must also contend with the continuing controversy surrounding the murder of Garda Jerry McCabe. The McCabe family live in this ward.

In Ward 2, Fianna Fáil also looks vulnerable, if only because it won two of the four seats last time out on a mere 32.2 per cent of the vote. Fine Gael had a weak ticket then, but Ms Catherine O'Farrell is strongly tipped to win a seat back this time, probably at the expense of Fianna Fáil's Mr Larry Cross.

Labour TD Ms Jan O'Sullivan was replaced last year by Mr Kieran Walsh, then the youngest councillor in the country (at 21). With half a quota to spare, he should hold the seat.

The PD's once had three councillors in Dessie O'Malley's city, and now have none, although two of their former members - Mayor Dick Sadlier and Mr Kieran O'Hanlon - continue to hold seats, now as Fianna Fáil representatives.

The party's best hope this time is in Ward 1, where it is running three candidates, but there are hopes elsewhere too, especially in Ward 3, O'Malley's former base.

If issues do decide any of the seats, resentment over the smoking ban could be a marginal influence against the Government.

"It's not something that people raise on doorsteps necessarily," a Fianna Fáil source said. "But it would be resented as an example of overregulation, and it could hurt us in very tight contests, where you're talking about 1 or 2 per cent either way."

Fianna Fáil controlled the outgoing council with the support of some independents and, unofficially, of Labour.

With the possibility of a two-seat loss, however, and likely gains for both Labour and Fine Gael, there could well be a shift in power here.