SEX OFFENDERS are the least likely group of prisoners to reoffend, according to recent research, which found that the group most likely to end back behind bars were fine defaulters.
The research was carried out by Dr Ian O'Donnell, of UCD's Institute of Criminology, and two other researchers, and will be published in the Criminology and Criminal Justice journal in the coming months.
It is based on three years' examination of the files of the Irish Prison Service, and the questions asked were: what was the recidivism rate for those imprisoned?; and whether this rate varied according to the crimes committed and the characteristics of offenders. It looked at all those released from Irish prisons between January 1st, 2001, and November 30th, 2004, a total of 19,955 releases, representing 14,485 different people, as some had reoffended within that time.
The overall proportion that were back behind bars within four years was just under 49 per cent, almost exactly the same as the proportion of prisoners in other similar jurisdictions. This is considerably less than the estimated 70 per cent often cited by commentators and policy-makers, according to the authors.
The most prevalent crime for which people were imprisoned was violence (27 per cent), followed by motoring offences (22 per cent), drug offences and property offences (each 13 per cent), public order offences (10 per cent), fine-defaulting (9 per cent) and sex offences (2 per cent).
Recidivism rates were significantly higher among males, younger people, those with less formal education, the unemployed and the illiterate. According to the authors, this mirrors the finding of similar surveys internationally.
Only about 18 per cent of the 488 people who had served time for a sex offence were re-imprisoned within three years of release. In contrast 85 per cent of fine defaulters were re-imprisoned within that time. More than 45 per cent of those sentenced for a violent or property crime were re-arrested and re-convicted and sentenced.
Those who had served previous sentences made up 60 per cent of those re-imprisoned within three years. "Thus we find that youth and a prior criminal history are among the strongest predictors of recidivism," the authors state.
Referring to the implications of the findings for policy-makers, they say there were two major findings. The first related to sex offenders and the parole process. There is virtually a blanket ban on early release for sex offenders, which makes it difficult to incentivise them to participate in treatment programmes. However, this research shows that sex offenders are very unlikely to reoffend within a short time of their release.
If risk assessment plays a role in deciding on parole, they should be considered for early release.
Asked why sex offenders have such a low recidivism rate, Dr O'Donnell told The Irish Times that many of the offences happened a long time ago, and the people are no longer a risk. In addition, a large proportion of sex offenders commit the crimes within their own families, and the families are often broken up by the prosecution, so they do not have the same opportunity following release. These offenders are not likely to offend outside the family.
He added that one should not underestimate the extent to which under-reporting and prosecution failure were a problem with such crimes.
The other significant issue raised by the research is the high recidivism rate among fine-defaulters, who are virtually certain to end up back in jail.
"If fine defaulters were kept out of prison the overall rate of recidivism would be reduced from 49 to 42 per cent and the number of prisoners released each year would fall by 9 per cent," he said. "Furthermore the cost savings, in enforcing warrants, police time, court time, etc, as well as the cost of imprisonment itself, would be considerable."