CYPRUS:After the defeat of incumbent president Tassos Papadopoulos, it is still all to play for in the Cyprus elections, writes Michael Jansenin Nicosia
Sunday's second round in the presidential election in Cyprus could be a cliff-hanger like the first round. Last week incumbent Tassos Papadopoulos of the centrist Democratic Party was eliminated by his main rivals, former foreign minister Ioannis Kasolides of the right-wing Democratic Rally and house president Dimitris Christofias of the communist Akel.
Although Mr Papadopoulos refused to back either, his party, courted by both, declared for Mr Christofias, who also has the backing of the socialists. However, a large number of Democratic Party voters, many of whom dislike Akel, could choose Mr Kasolides. Since there were only 1,000 votes between the first-round winners, the distribution of Democratic Party votes could be decisive.
Mr Papadopoulos's defeat is seen as an opportunity by Western powers to renew the search for a formula to reunite the island divided between the Greek-Cypriot majority republic, an EU member, and the breakaway Turkish-Cypriot entity recognised only by Ankara.
Since he urged Greek Cypriots to reject the 2004 UN plan accepted by Turkish Cypriots, he has been blamed for the failure to end the division of the island. Mr Kasolides and Mr Christofias are ready to promote reconciliation with the Turkish Cypriots and enter fresh negotiations, but both reject the 2004 plan which, Greek Cypriots, argue gave Ankara its demands at the expense of their rights.
Furthermore, some Turkish Cypriots are suspicious of Mr Kasolides because his party contains ultra-nationalist Greek Cypriot elements and Mr Christofias has cultivated relations with leftist Turkish Cypriots, who favour reunification in a federation rather than the two-state solution promoted by Turkey.
The candidates also have different international outlooks. Mr Kasolides is strongly committed to the EU and Mr Christofias is a Eurosceptic with close ties to Russia. An analyst noted, however, that Cyprus cannot stray far from the course laid down by Mr Papadopoulos, who secured the republic's EU and euro zone entry.
Before Mr Papadopoulos was removed, the West favoured his rivals. It now prefers Mr Kasolides. German chancellor Angela Merkel and the Christian and conservative European People's Party indicated this by promptly congratulating him.
Turkish foreign minister Ali Babacan welcomed the change in leadership. "We hope that a new period for a resolution of the Cyprus problem will begin after the election. There will be efforts [ from the Turkish side to help] but we will have to be a little patient," he said.
It is not clear if the UN will revive the US and EU-backed July 2006 agreement to resolve day-to-day problems with the aim of reaching accord on basic issues. Although this document was signed by Mr Papadopoulos and Turkish Cypriot president Mehmet Ali Talat, Ankara's opposition has obstructed progress.
The analyst said: "Now that Tassos [ Papadopoulos] is out of the way, he can no longer be demonised and blamed for deadlock. What happens depends on Turkey. It is paradoxical that Turkey denies its Kurds autonomy but insists that Turkish Cypriots should have a separate state."