Search begins for a way to save peace process

It isn't pretty, it probably isn't parliamentary, but last night the Northern Secretary, Dr John Reid, in consultation with the…

It isn't pretty, it probably isn't parliamentary, but last night the Northern Secretary, Dr John Reid, in consultation with the pro-Belfast Agreement parties, felt he had no option but to engage in what distinctly looked like stroke politics.

It was part of the age-old political battle between principle and pragmatism, and right now pragmatism has the edge. It was the politics of the least-worst option as viewed by Dr Reid and the Yes camp, with Mr Bertie Ahern and Mr Tony Blair metaphorically looking over their shoulders from Dublin and London. But it could come back to haunt the process.

Mrs Pauline Armitage and Mr Peter Weir, after their week in the spotlight, finally stuck their knives into Mr Trimble. It was a deeply-wounding rather than a deadly thrust, and in due course the Ulster Unionist leader should have his revenge. Yesterday, procedures were initiated to expel the two dissidents from the party.

Now they must shuffle off to the wings to be replaced by other players. Enter centre-stage the Alliance leader, Mr David Ford, and his four MLA colleagues.

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The pressure was on the Alliance Party last night to redesignate as unionists in order to restore Mr Trimble as First Minister after he failed by one vote in that enterprise in the Assembly yesterday, even with Ms Jane Morrice, of the Women's Coalition, transmuting into a unionist.

There was much jocularity in the No end of the Assembly chamber yesterday. There were taunts of "political hermaphrodites", "political cross-dressing" and of Mr Trimble hanging on to the apron strings of the Women's Coalition.

Its two MLAs, Prof Monica McWilliams and Ms Morrice, sounded distinctly uncomfortable. But they persevered against the jeering. Desperate situations needed desperate measures, they reasoned. Their action was designed to protect the agreement, they said. They realise, however, that when the next elections come around their opponents will claim that they don't know where they stand politically.

The Alliance executive, comprising about 20 members, was meeting last night to decide whether to follow Ms Morrice's example. It was a difficult, emotional call for the party.

Earlier this week, the party's former deputy leader, Mr Seamus Close MLA, told The Irish Times: "There isn't a snowball's chance in hell of my redesignating." On Thursday night, Mr Ford made a similar comment. "The party will not redesignate", he said. But that was for yesterday's vote.

Alliance's central ethos through 30 years of conflict has been its centrist, non-sectarian - neither nationalist, nor unionist - political philosophy. Another fundamental element of its philosophy is that Alliance disagrees with the designation procedures of the agreement.

They believe it is farcical that, even with 70 per cent of the Assembly voting for them yesterday, Mr Trimble and Mr Mark Durkan failed to be elected as First and Deputy First Ministers. Yesterday, Mr Trimble, Dr Reid and the rest of the Yes camp fully agreed with them.

For yesterday's key vote Mr Trimble and Mr Durkan required the support of a majority of unionists and nationalists. The SDLP and Sinn FΘin delivered, but because of Mrs Armitage and Mr Weir, the UUP leader was one vote short of a unionist majority.

Under the agreement, for most other votes a weighted majority of 60 per cent is required, plus 40 per cent of each of the nationalist and unionist designations. Had yesterday's vote been under that system, Mr Trimble would have been returned.

Alliance favours a weighted majority procedure where, for example, in key votes a simple 65 per cent cross-community turnout in the Assembly would be required. That's the type of pay-off they were demanding for redesignating "The question is should we redesignate in order to get rid of the designation system", one party member said last night. Dr Reid has offered Alliance a review of the voting system - a process which falls within the terms of the Belfast Agreement - but did not give absolute commitments.

The SDLP and Sinn FΘin, however, have concerns about changes to the voting system. The concept of parallel nationalist/unionist consensus provides certain safeguards that they won't lightly want thrown away. So there are dangers for Alliance, because a review will not guarantee them a new voting system.

Mr Weir had a nice take on this conundrum. "Well, if people want to return to majority rule!" he shrugged, indicating that he could live with a return to old-style Stormont rule.

The two governments will exploit any opportunity to protect Mr Trimble and, by extension, the agreement. The alternative to redesignation appears to be suspension, followed by a Christmas election. Mr Trimble, having helped compel the IRA to move on arms, conceivably could withstand the challenge of the DUP, but the SDLP, in its period of transition, would face very strong opposition from Sinn FΘin.

The outcome could be Mr Trimble back as First Minister with Mr Gerry Adams or Mr Martin McGuinness as Deputy First Minister. It could even be Mr Peter Robinson and Mr Adams. "Therein lies the road to civil war politics", as one Ulster Unionist put it.

That is why Dr Reid was yesterday desperately trying to contrive some scheme which could permit Mr Trimble to be returned with Mr Durkan and stave off elections until May 2003. He wants to do it in such a manner that it could be reasonably argued that it is legitimate rather than Machiavellian politics. His defence is that in most other democracies a 70 per cent vote would win most parliamentary battles, so why shouldn't it be the same in Northern Ireland.

"Anything is permissible to save the Belfast Agreement", snorted Mr Robinson "The agreement is on a life-support system, kept alive by duplicity and sleight of hand", he added.

He and his DUP colleagues, as well as everyone else in the No camp, will have great political fun in the days ahead. The Yes side must grin through the ballyragging and hope that Alliance will change its colours. They must hope, too, that the Assembly can survive to the end of its life in 19 months' time, when perhaps the political climate will be more favourable to the undoubted majority who want the agreement to succeed.