IF anything is certain in Dublin North West, it is that Noel Ahern of Fianna Fail will be elected easily. For supporters and foes alike he is the one "sure thing" in a key marginal constituency where it will be a scramble for everybody else.
The question is whether he will pull in his running mate, Mr Pat Carey, ousting the 1992 poll topper, Labour's Roisin Shortall. Last time Mr Carey, a teacher and city councillor, was 650 votes short, while Ms Shortall was elected on the first count with more than 1,000 votes to spare. It went to counts 11 and 12 before the remaining three outgoing TDs could claim their seats.
This time, however the indications are different. "Roisin Shortall did well on the Dick Spring swing in 1992," says Jim Donelan, Fianna Fail's director of elections in the constituency. "But that swing is long gone.
Nonetheless, Dublin North West could still spring a few surprises. It is a constituency with a large floating vote. It also has significant population pockets where turnout is as low as 30 per cent.
Mainly working class, with an older middle class population in Phibsborough, Dublin North West stretches from Whitehall and Santry to Ballymun and Finglas and as far as Drumcondra and Phibsborough with the North Circular road as a boundary.
There are three Government representatives in Dublin North West and while Fine Gael and Democratic Left are reasonably confident of retaining their seats, they know that it is a constituency where every vote is hard earned.
There have been rumblings that the Democratic Left leader and Minister for Social Welfare, Proinsias De Rossa may face quite a battle but both he and Roisin Short all are expected to gain from the Government's £170 million commitment to finally demolish and redevelop the Ballymun Towers.
The Coalition parties will also benefit from the recently announced £50 million tax designation for the Finglas Technology Campus, with the potential for "thousands of jobs".
Fianna Fail is doing its utmost to win back the seat lost in 1992 by Jim Tunney. The party is canvassing every door three times, and will be helped by the red rawing of the constituency to bring part of Dublin Central, a Bertie Ahern stronghold.
Fine Gael's Mary Flaherty, a TD for 17 years, is expected to gain from the inclusion of parts of Glasnevin and the party, like Fianna Fail, has been assiduous in its canvassing. It feels secure enough to run a second candidate Cllr Brendan Brady, an option not risked five years ago.
On the doorsteps there is no single issue emerging, although crime levels in certain areas have worried a lot of electors. In disadvantaged areas, social welfare is the topic of concern while tax has been raised in the more affluent places.
There are six independents running and two are seen as quite strong although unlikely to make a major impact. Dr Bill Tormey, a hospital doctor and former Labour Party member, polled a respectable 2,515 first preference votes in 1992. He is targeting the seats held by Mr De Rossa and Ms Short all. Tony Taaffe is a solicitor and independent Fianna Fail councillor who failed to win a party nomination. He may have some effect on the Fianna Fail vote.
The Green party's Tom Simpson is unlikely to match the impact of some of his more high profile party colleagues in other constituencies. The National Patty's Joe MacDonough and John Dunne of the Workers' Party are also in the race.
