THERE ARE 13 candidates competing for the four seats in Dublin North but political pundits are forecasting "no change".
It is agreed that there is going to be a "dogfight" for the fourth seat, with almost every candidate confident they will get it. Realistically, it looks like the Greens sole TD, Trevor Sargent, has the hardest job on his hands. He will be trying to beat off a major challenge from Fianna Fail's G. V. Wright, a very experienced candidate whom he defeated on the eighth count in the last election.
The crucial question is: has Sargent done enough in his five years in Leinster House to warrant a return? The answer to that could determine the fourth seat.
Labour's Sean Ryan is unlikely to repeat his performance of 1992 and notch up 14,693 first preference votes. This achievement has gone down in Dublin North's political folklore when he swept in on the national "Spring Tide". Nevertheless, he can drop 5,000 votes and still get elected on his impressive track record.
His supporters are certainly not complacent and are stressing his hard work, both in the Dail and in the local council. He became a member of Dublin County Council in 1983, and has been a member of the Dail since 1989.
Another certainty is Ray Burke, who has been in the Dail since 1973. His father, Paddy, was in the Dail from 1944 until his retirement in 1973. Between father and son, they have given ever 50 years of service.
Burke has also held many senior ministries and was one of the most experienced politicians in the last Dail. He was elected on the first count in 1992, with 8,745 votes. Wright was also his running mate in that election and garnered 4,862 first preference votes.
A senior party spokesman said the canvass was going "quite well" and they were "more than hopeful of picking up a second seat". This optimism seems to be well founded and they will be in close contention.
Fine Gael also have a strong front runner in Nora Owen, the Minister for Justice. She was first elected to the Dail in 1981, and was a member of Dublin County Council since 1979. She was always a good constituency workers and since being elevated to Minister has consolidated her position.
She was elected on the eighth count in 1992, but will probably get in earlier this time. Her running mate is Philip Jenkinson, a local farmer and the only candidate living north of Blakes Cross. The party hopes he can pick up the large farming vote. He replaced Owen on Fingal County Council when she resigned her seat after being appointed a Minister.
The Progressive Democrats had no candidate in the last contest but are now fielding Finian Fallon. It is not known how he will fare but the political pundits don't expect him to be in the final shakeup. Fallon is the son of Garda Richard Fallon who was shot dead in Arran Quay, Dublin, in the early 1970s.
He is a young and impressive candidate who says he is getting a very good response at the doors. He is particularly vocal on planning and crime issues. However, Fianna Fail don't believe he will make it but they will be looking on his performance with great interest and hope the national transfer arrangement works to their advantage.
The issues in this constituency include education, health, roads, crime, unemployment, rezoning and the need for a better transport system.
"The refugee issue has also surfaced here," said a senior Fine Gael strategist. However, they believe that this will be sorted out when the new Act dealing with the matter is fully operational.
None of the parties think that the refugee question will affect the outcome of the election. "It is just something that people mention in passing and it won't win or lose seats for anyone," according to a Fianna Fail worker.
Most candidates and their workers report a "nice, pleasant campaign". In the last election, there was the volatile "airport issue" and the fears of major redundancies. The fact that this is not a factor any more is a major cause of relief to some canvassers.
Another bonus is the weather. The weather has been magnificent and is ideal for canvassing. One party worker said: "It's a blessing. People like to talk when the weather is mild."
However, one canvasser complained that he was savaged last Wednesday night when an irate man who had been watching Borussia Dortmund beating Juventus 3-1 did not take too kindly to having his viewing interrupted.