Rocky weekend jangles nerves on all sides

It was Conor Cruise O'Brien who complained: "We are commemorating ourselves to death."

It was Conor Cruise O'Brien who complained: "We are commemorating ourselves to death."

Be that as it may, republican ceremonies to honour the dead generations continue unabated. Yesterday was a big event in the south Armagh republican calendar, with a commemoration of the IRA unit that was blown to pieces at Edentubber, right on the Border, after a landmine the group was preparing went off. Five men died, including two from as far south as Co Wexford.

During his speech, Martin McGuinness, Sinn Fein's chief negotiator, recalled that he was only seven years old when he heard about Edentubber.

As a child, I can myself recall seeing the funeral cortege of Patrick Parle, one of the dead, as it passed through our village on its way to Wexford town for the burial. It is a sobering thought that, over four decades later, and if the current settlement attempts collapse, that some of the seven-year-olds at Edentubber yesterday may yet hear the call to arms.

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This has to be one of the most fraught periods in Northern Ireland's history. Journalists who are simply trying to do their job by finding out what is going on inside the talks have been subjected to angry denunciations by party leaderships who, in turn, have to cope with jittery followers unsettled by the latest reports about the "deal" on offer.

As reported in The Irish Times last week, there will be an IRA statement but it will not say that the "war" is over, nor will it explicitly guarantee decommissioning of weapons. The best information available is that it will support Sinn Fein's strategy and may pledge to work for an "unbreakable" peace.

Sinn Fein, on the other hand, is likely to deplore violence, including punishment beatings, and stress the opportunity available to create a permanent peace by full implementation of the Belfast Agreement. It will pledge support in strong terms for the aim of full decommissioning by May 2000, provided the other aspects of the agreement are up and running.

The latest wave of media speculation envisages a start to the disposal of IRA weapons by the end of January and total disarmament by May 2000. Sinn Fein sources criticised these leaks yesterday, saying: "In the round they are inaccurate."

The phrase "in the round" was a favourite of Mo Mowlam during her time as Secretary of State. Sinn Fein sources could not elaborate on what it might mean, if anything.

The ink on the Belfast Agreement was hardly dry when the speculation began about decommissioning. One has lost count of all the reports suggesting that the IRA was about to provide a "big bang" in advance of the executive being formed. Republican sources denied this consistently. Conspiracy theorists say they wanted to hand over guns but could not get enough support in the ranks for such an action.

Either way, it did not happen, and now the Ulster Unionists have come to a position where they are prepared to form the executive before, rather than after, decommissioning.

Ask republicans what will happen over weapons, once the executive has been formed, and they go into soundbite mode.

The essential message is that decommissioning will be "dealt with" in the context of full implementation of the Good Friday pact. Without the new institutions, especially the North-South council and cross-Border bodies, nothing is possible. Once these are established, previously unattainable objectives come within reach. But they stress that decommissioning is the responsibility of all the parties to the agreement, not just Sinn Fein.

Sinn Fein comments yesterday focused on the likely sources of the latest leaks rather than on the detail of the reports themselves. Normally helpful republican sources were close as a clam on the subject: anything they said would only damage either themselves or Trimble.

However, this reporter could find no support in any credible or reliable quarter for the notion that the IRA was about to disarm unilaterally by the end of January. No such commitment is explicit in the deal worked out last week.

But the removal of IRA weapons from the scene is a distinct possibility, and even likelihood, if the blueprint worked out on Good Friday is put into practice. The more Sinn Fein becomes part of normal political life, the smaller the role for the IRA, which would have nothing to do except attend commemorations.

While Mr Peter Mandelson is working to persuade the UUP to back its leader, the weekend has been a rocky one for the peace process.

Expectations that the IRA will decommission soon have been raised, but the problem for Mr Trimble is that these are not contained in the small print of the deal on offer.

Republican ranks have been rattled yet again by widely-publicised claims that their leaders are about to sell them out.

There are strong indications that Senator Mitchell may choose today to announce his departure.

That will leave the new Northern Secretary with the task of steadying unionist nerves and assuaging their doubts. Republicans will be watching nervously in case Mr Mandelson makes concessions to the unionists which create knock-on difficulties for the Sinn Fein leadership.

The deal so painfully worked out might then be off the table.