The strut of Robinson's return belies the crunch decision he faces, writes GERRY MORIARTYNorthern Editor
THE PROSPECTS of a deal that will rescue the Northern Executive and Assembly remained “on the edge”, Northern Secretary Shaun Woodward told the House of Commons during Northern Ireland question time yesterday.
It seems that the DUP Assembly and Westminster parliamentary party are standing on that very same edge, with the DUP leader Peter Robinson, now reinstated as First Minister, seeking to talk them away from the precipice.
In particular, he must persuade 14 DUP Assembly nay-sayers to change their minds and vote in favour of the deal that has been virtually concluded after nine days of Hillsborough Castle talks.
How he performs could also determine whether he’s for the political drop, and whether the Northern Executive and Assembly will fall with him.
There is an urgent sense of politics in Northern Ireland having reached a crunch point.
Shortly before teatime yesterday, the DUP announced that Robinson was returning as First Minister, and that acting First Minister Arlene Foster could now dedicate more time to her job as Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Industry, as well as being one of the DUP’s chief negotiators.
The BBC Spotlight programme on the so-called Irisgate affair accused him of being in breach of parliamentary rules by not shopping Iris for borrowing £50,000 (€57,000) on behalf of her lover Kirk McCambley – although Peter Robinson had insisted that his wife repay the money.
Paul Maguire, QC, who was asked, pending longer and more detailed parliamentary investigations, whether Robinson had broken rules, found, as Robinson said in the statement, that “there were no breaches whatsoever by me of the Ministerial Code, the Ministerial Code of Conduct, the Pledge of Office and the seven principles of public life”.
The heading on the DUP statement declared in capital letters, “ROBINSON IS BACK.” There was a certain strut and confidence to that headline: it appeared to denote a man who was in battling form, girded for the looming struggles ahead – the most immediate challenge being whether he can convince the 14 DUP rebels and sceptics who rejected the deal on Monday to now back him, and the deal.
Gordon Brown and Brian Cowen want him to make that decision very quickly, possibly today. It truly has got to a stage where, if the talking goes on much longer, politics and politicians here will become a total laughing stock.“Patience is required, but equally we must be careful not to try people’s patience to distraction,” said Woodward at Westminster.
That was reflected by a blank page in yesterday’s Belfast Telegraph with a little panel in the middle stating, “We had planned to use this space to bring you the story of how, after days of talking, our politicians had finally abandoned posturing, squabbling and tribalism to seal the deal on policing and justice, the last piece of the devolution jigsaw. We regret we are unable to supply this service due to circumstances beyond our control.”
What happens next seems quite simple. Robinson must put it up to 33 DUP MLAs, eight of whom double as MPs (being mindful that Iris Robinson has stood down as MP and MLA for Strangford) to back or reject the Hillsborough Castle deal.
There are some loose ends to be tidied up in terms of that potential agreement but, sources confirm, it is generally done and dusted.
Among the DUP’s perceived sceptics, the most important and influential are MPs, deputy leader Nigel Dodds, Gregory Campbell, the Rev William McCrea and David Simpson. The party chairman and MLA Lord Morrow is also viewed as highly dubious about the deal.
Since Monday there were some presentational changes to the Hillsborough draft agreement with, it is understood, some stronger commitments to address the issue of contentious parades.
Of the 14 who voted “No” at the DUP Assembly group meeting on Monday, some, based on those alterations, could switch back to Robinson’s side. Some could still vote “No” but remain in the party.
Some could jump ship, perhaps to Jim Allister’s Traditional Unionist Voice.
Robinson still has a real chance of saving the Hillsborough deal. He knows he may lose some of his crew, but equally he must know he has little choice but to face down the mutineers.