IRELAND’S POPULATION growth is on course to continue over the coming years, giving us the youngest age profile and the fewest dependent older people in the European Union.
Yesterday’s preliminary census results – which estimate the population to be 4.58 million, the highest in 150 years – is good long-term news for the country at a time when many EU countries are faced with decreasing populations and higher levels of dependants.
But the bigger than expected population may also place additional pressure on health, education and other services at a time when the Government is trying to reduce spending.
Central Statistics Office officials said the number living in Ireland since the previous census in 2006 is up 341,000, which represents an 8 per cent increase. This is 100,000 more than the CSO had forecast.
The population growth has been driven by a high birth rate, with more than 70,000 births a year, and strong inward migration up until the economic downturn hit.
While officials estimate that significant numbers are now emigrating – between 30,000 and 35,000 in the 12 months up to April of this year – these numbers are more than offset by the high birth rate.
In fact, the natural increase – the number of births minus deaths – is the highest on record for any census.
The results also point to a continued shift in population growth towards commuter-belt areas and suburbs outside the major cities and towns. Laois had the fastest-growing population of any county (up 20 per cent), followed by Cavan, Fingal (both 14 per cent), Longford and Meath (both 13 per cent).
The only administrative areas to record a fall in population were Limerick city (down 5 per cent) and Cork city (down 0.4 per cent). The population of the surrounding counties rose by between 8 and 10 per cent.
In another sign of how the commuter belt is extending farther outside the capital, the census shows that the mideast area – Meath, Kildare and Wicklow – no longer has the highest rate of inward migration. It has been surpassed by midlands and Border regions.
The housing boom and collapse have also left their mark. The total number of vacant dwellings is 294,202, an increase of 27,880 since the 2006 census. The areas with the highest proportion of empty homes were mainly in the west. Leitrim had the highest proportion (30 per cent), followed by Donegal (28 per cent).
The census also threw up some surprises in relation to the gender breakdown of the country. There are now more females than males with 981 males for every 1,000 females.
Dublin had the lowest ratio with only 949 males for every 1,000 females, while the midlands was the only region to show more males than females with 1,002 for every 1,000.
Yesterday’s figures will have a major influence on the Government’s plans for redrawing electoral boundaries and reducing the number of TDs before the next election.
The number of TDs in the Dáil will be cut by between six and 13 under the terms of reference issued to a new constituency commission yesterday by Minister for the Environment Phil Hogan.
In its election manifesto, Fine Gael pledged to cut the number of TDs in the Dáil by 20 from the current 166. Mr Hogan said yesterday this was impossible to achieve while keeping within the constitutional limits which specified there had to be one TD for every 30,000 of the population.
Overall, while the population has been growing at about 1.6 per cent, CSO officials forecast it is likely to continue to grow over the coming years but at a slower pace.
Officials also urged caution over the interpretation of data in yesterday’s preliminary results. Definitive results will not be published until next March or April.
