GREEN PROSPECTS:THIS ELECTION campaign has seen the big beasts of Labour and Conservative grapple with the challenge posed by the newly prominent Lib Dems, but some analysts believe today's ballot will reveal another interesting trend: the rise of smaller parties in the British body politic.
From the Greens to the far-right BNP; from Ukip’s Eurosceptics to nationalists in Scotland and Wales and not forgetting that hardy perennial, the Official Monster Raving Loony Party, voters in the UK will face a vast array of choices when they enter the polling booth today.
A record number of British voters will plump for parties usually classified as “other” in pre-election polls, predicts Patrick Dunleavy, a professor of political science at the London School of Economics.
“As well as the record number of independent candidates in this election, Ukip is standing about 560 candidates, the BNP around 340 – which is far more than they have ever stood before – and the Greens are also standing an unprecedented number of candidates,” Prof Dunleavy said.
“Mathematically, it is highly likely that there will be a record number of votes for other parties simply because there will be so many more of them in so many more constituencies.”
He notes that, collectively, Britain’s constellation of smaller parties has polled about 10 per cent support in the run-up to the election. “This is a high level for this group,” he said, adding that it pointed to a continuing fragmentation of British politics.
The Green Party, which is fielding more than 300 candidates, is hopeful that its leader, former MEP Caroline Lucas, will secure the party’s first Westminster seat in today’s election, thereby ending Britain’s position as the only major country in Europe which has never had a Green MP in its parliament.
The Greens, like all the smaller parties, are awaiting the prospect of a hung parliament with some anticipation, as it will give voices like theirs more clout. “I think there are pretty exciting days ahead,” Ms Lucas, who is expected to oust Labour from the seat it holds in Brighton, said yesterday.
Former Labour MP George Galloway, who is running as one of three national candidates for the Respect party, agrees. “A hung parliament is a gift to parties like ours because it gives us a lot of influence,” he said, while canvassing in the east London constituency of Poplar and Limehouse.
Last year’s European parliament elections, where minor parties usually perform better, saw Ukip run Labour into third place when it garnered 2½ million votes in total. Britain’s Green Party polled well in the European ballot and the BNP also made gains, including a win for leader Nick Griffin.
Until Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg burst into the national consciousness last month, the smaller parties were expected to benefit from the widespread “anti-politics” mood caused in part from the fallout from the MPs expenses scandal. Some analysts believe the Lib Dems have now stolen that protest vote by exploiting popular disenchantment with Labour and the Conservatives.
Prof Dunleavy is not so sure, though, noting what appears to be some “seepage” of last month’s Lib Dem surge as polling day approached.
Whatever the Clegg effect translates into today, the fortunes of the smaller parties will be worth watching – not just in terms of the role they may play in a possible hung parliament, but also for what their performance might say about the future shape of Britain’s political landscape.
