Northern Iraq appears to be entering a delicate and potentially dangerous phase as tension between rival Kurdish groups intensify following a rebel operation which is pushing Iraqi forces back from their front lines and towards the strategic oil-producing city of Kirkuk.
Aspiring leaders of the future government of post-war Iraq appear to have been slapped down in their quest to set up a government-in-exile they had hoped could immediately occupy the power vacuum following the expected removal of Saddam Hussein.
Washington has failed in its attempt to elicit guarantees from Turkey that it will not send troops over its border into northern Iraq even as one of Ankara's major trigger-points for doing so appears to have been breached.
President George Bush's personal envoy to the Iraqi opposition, Zalmai Khalilzad, said yesterday that no agreement had been reached "with regard to Turkish forces entering northern Iraq". Speaking in Salahuddin, the headquarters of the Kurdish Democratic Party, he added: "We think there is no need for Turkish forces."
Mr Khalilzad's meeting with the press was postponed by four hours and moved from the city of Irbil to the higher ground of Salahuddin after a shell exploded close to the Four Lanterns Hotel, where it had been due to take place.
The KDP's interior minister, Khalil Sinjari, said it was not known what type of shell it was or where it had been fired from, but he hinted at "terrorist forces" bent on destabilising the area and spreading fear among locals.
Northern Iraq already appears to be on the brink of instability. Officials of the KDP say privately that unilateral military action by its northern rival, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, in sending its troops into Iraqi territory was aimed at drawing Turkish troops into the region.
The politics of northern Iraq are complicated and murky. The region has been protected by the British and Americans for 12 years in the aftermath of attacks by Saddam Hussein which were aimed at wiping out the minority Kurdish population of Iraq.
Control of the area, which has become a pseudo-independent Kurdish state, is shared by two main groups, the KDP and the PUK. Both are run by warlords with deep historical ties to their regions and equally deep rivalries. A power struggle between the two spilled into civil war in the early and mid-1990s. A border divides the two areas and the two governments are barely able to agree on anything which could unite them into a credible single leadership for all Kurds.
The decision by the PUK leader, Jalal Talibani, to send his militia into Iraqi terrority flies in the face of commitments by all factions with men under arms to await a decision by the Americans on how the northern campaign should proceed.
Reports yesterday said that the PUK forces had pushed the Saddamite troops to within 10km of the oil-rich city of Kirkuk. Turkey has already made it clear that any attempt by Kurdish groups to take Kirkuk will justify an invasion.
"The KDP leaders think that Talibani is being very devious here, trying to draw the Turks over the border into KDP territory so that the KDP will be wiped out and he will emerge the strongest force," said a member of a powerful political faction in Irbil.
Turkey's south-eastern border is alongside the KDP's share of northern Iraq, where a Turkish troop presence has been a reality close to the border for a decade and in the capital, Irbil, since 1998. A Turkish presence could trigger a civil war in the Kurdish region, as leaders including Talibani, and the KDP head Massoud Barzani, have threatened that their militia will fire on any Turkish troops who cross into their territory.
In another development yesterday, the KDP released a statement on behalf of the Iraqi opposition which made no mention of the "Interim Iraqi Alliance" which had been announced by the deputy to the Arab member of the leadership council, Dr Ahmed Chalabi, who heads the Iraqi National Council.
Nabeel Musawi said earlier this week that a government-in-waiting, complete with a 14-member cabinet, had been formed by the four opposition groups and was standing by to take power immediately after the war. That plan appears to have been vetoed by Washington, which has long opposed the establishment of a provisional government.
The Iraqi forces near Kirkuk were quick to signal that their battle was not over. A salvo of rockets slammed into Chamchamal shortly before 6 p.m. in what a PUK official said was a classic Iraqi army maneouvre of firing on lost ground. At least one person was injured.