US:Barack Obama had to rewrite his victory speech after an unexpected loss, writes Denis Staunton
The scene at Southern New Hampshire University was desolate as Hillary Clinton's supporters gathered in an empty gym hall for what promised to be the gloomiest election night party in New Hampshire.
Most reporters had gone to Nashua, where Barack Obama was expected to celebrate his second thumping victory within a week and many of those at Clinton's event were there to read the funeral rites over a campaign that once looked unstoppable.
Shortly before the polls closed, a leading Clinton supporter told me that the campaign's internal polls showed Obama four points ahead - a much smaller margin than the double-digit lead predicted by most polls. If the outcome was so close, Clinton might be able to claim a modest comeback, but few of her staff were banking even on this.
When the first returns came in, CNN showed Clinton ahead of Obama by two points, but nobody was taking it too seriously. "Don't get carried away, it's only 11 per cent of the vote," one supporter said.
Earlier in the day, Clinton told friends that if she had two more days in New Hampshire, she thought she could turn the race around. Canvassers reported a lot of anger on the part of women voters who felt that the former first lady had been unfairly treated by the media, which was almost universally gleeful after her defeat in Iowa.
Still, Obama had seemed unstoppable as record crowds waited to hear his uplifting speeches at rallies throughout the state and newspaper profiles heralded the second coming of John F Kennedy and Martin Luther King.
By contrast, Clinton's campaign events seemed old-fashioned and a bit depressing as she or her husband, Bill Clinton, catalogued the perils facing the United States and warned against the "false hopes" peddled by Obama.
At one event in Amherst last Saturday, the former president started by telling his audience that the stock market had just had the worst start to a year since 1932 and warned that many of them could lose their homes this year because of the mortgage crisis.
By the time he finished, almost a quarter of the audience had left, probably feeling a lot worse than before they arrived.
By Tuesday evening, Clinton had prepared a concession speech that would promise to carry on fighting until February 5th, when more than 20 states vote and the campaign was about to announce personnel changes.
There was even talk of skipping the next two contests in Nevada and South Carolina, which Obama was expected to win easily after a landslide in New Hampshire.
An hour after the polls closed, as the gym hall was filling up, CNN was still showing Clinton ahead and the mood among her supporters began to lighten a little. "I can't look at it," a young fundraiser from Washington said. "Just tell me, could we do it?"
An hour later, after John McCain had given his victory speech in the Republican race and John Edwards acknowledged his poor third place among the Democrats, the chants in the gym hall grew louder as staffers clung to one another. At about 10.30pm, the Associated Press called the primary for Clinton and the gym hall went wild as campaign staff, many in tears, hugged one another.
"You have just witnessed one of the great upsets in American political history," Clinton adviser Sidney Blumenthal told me.
Downstairs, where the media were filing stories, the room was silent as the would-be executioners stared at the screens, horrified by what was unfolding before them. "They're like people watching the planes flying into the Twin Towers," a British colleague remarked.
Shortly before 11pm, Obama conceded, delivering what had clearly been drafted as a victory speech, full of inspirational passages and ending with the words: "Yes, we can."
When Clinton took the stage, she was beaming but her remarks displayed a new humility, telling the people of New Hampshire that they had helped her to find her voice. "I felt like we all spoke from our hearts, and I am so gratified that you responded. Now, together, let's give America the kind of comeback that New Hampshire has just given me."
When she finished, one of her senior staff told me that the moment the result was announced, donations started pouring in again. Declan Kelly, an Irish businessman based in New York who has already raised $1 million (€682 million) for Clinton's campaign, said he would be hitting the phones immediately to chase up new donors.
"It was just unthinkable this morning but tonight it's just a remarkable turnaround," he said. "Now she is the Comeback Kid and it totally changes the entire picture of the race."