When the Dail returns at the end of January, the general-election campaign will begin. Four ardfheiseanna are planned - the PDs in Limerick on the weekend of February 9th, Fine Gael at City West, Co Dublin, the following weekend, Fianna Fβil at the same location on March 8th/9th and Labour starting on March 23rd, venue to be announced. All will use the opportunity to attract publicity, enthuse the troops and launch their platforms.
As for the date of the great day itself, opinion is hardening towards the first half of May. The legislative timetable, including the Finance Bill, will be completed and through the Seanad just before Easter, so there is no point in dissolving the Dβil before then. Easter Monday falls on April 1st so there is a question as to whether the Dβil will return at all after the recess. It does not have to be in session to be dissolved. So the window lies between mid-April and the start of the World Cup and the exams at the beginning of June - with the current money on early May (and not necessarily a Thursday).
But in the meantime, there could be an accident. Between now and Easter, there are two major unresolved and dangerous issues on the Coalition agenda: abortion and the national stadium. FF and the PDs are not at one on either and the potential for destabilising the partnership, which has hung together into its fifth year, cannot be ruled out.
For the political parties in general, the spectre of the anti-Nice vote remains and must be addressed within the next couple of years - and there is the uncertainty about the economy.