Questions & Answers

What happened over the weekend?

What happened over the weekend?

EU leaders met and decided that 11 states would join the euro, when it comes into being next January. This was no surprise. But what took everyone aback was just how fiercely they argued over the appointment of the first president of the EU central bank. Helmut Kohl said they were "some of the most difficult hours ever experienced." It was certainly the longest lunch ever experienced, as the EU leaders stayed at the table for 11 hours. No doubt the wine waiter will claim overtime.

But they sorted it out, didn't they?

Indeed they did, but only after very angry haggling and a near split in the German government, when the Finance Minister Mr Theo Waigel objected to the first draft of the compromise plan. It turned into one of the biggest Franco-German rows in years, with the Dutch Prime Minister, Mr Wim Kok, who is facing into an election next weekend, caught in the middle. In the end the somewhat Jesuitical compromise was that Dutchman Mr Wim Duisenberg will be the first president but will step down, apparently sometime in 2002, of his own free will. The French nominee, Mr Jean Claude Trichet, will then take over.

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Why didn't they decide exactly when the Dutchman would step down?

A clear date for his abdication could not be set, as this would have breached the letter of the Maastricht Treaty, which stipulated an eight-year term in order to underpin the independence of the institution. But its spirit was well and truly ignored.

So who won?

The French President, Mr Jacques Chirac, will claim he did, as everyone else favoured appointed Mr Duisenberg for a full eight year term. But no-one won really won. Mr Kohl was roundly criticised at home and his opponents will use it as a stick to beat him with in the election campaign in the autumn. And Mr Duisenberg was forced to say that the decision to step down early " is my decision alone and is entirely of my own free will." Mr Tony Blair, as president of the EU council, had to support this official "spin."

Did anyone believe them?

Not a chance. Mr Chirac had to tell journalists "don't laugh" when he told them of the deal and tried to persuade them that Mr Duisenberg was stepping down early voluntarily.

Does it matter?

Turning the job into a political football has damaged the reputation of the new central bank, before it has even been formed. Financial markets need to be sure that the central bank is free from political influence. And this confidence is vital if interest rates are to be kept low and the euro is to be a strong currency. The bank will now have to work harder to win confidence for its management of the new currency. Whether this will mean that it has to set interest rates slightly higher than it would otherwise have to convince the markets that it is serious about tackling inflation remains to be seen. Fortunately, both Mr Duisenberg and Mr Trichet have reputations as tough currency managers.

How will the markets react?

Hard to say. But they will be closely watching the political fall-out from the weekend and may now be a bit nervous about the launch of the new currency. Major financial upheavals look unlikely on the markets in the short-term; after all, the single currency is still on track. But Europe's leaders and the central bank, when it comes into being in July, have some work to do to build confidence again and to reassure everyone that the kind of row seen over the weekend will not be a feature of life inside the euro-zone.

And the prize for quote of the weekend?

Goes to Mr Wolfgang Schussle, Austrian Foreign Minister:" If you had experienced the events of today, you would not have got the impression that this had anything to do with creating a union." Indeed !

How did Ireland fare over the weekend?

Much as expected. There was never any doubt that we would be one of the founder members or that we would lock in at our current ERM central rate of DM2.48. And Mr Maurice O'Connell, our bank governor, wasn't interested in any of the top jobs in the European central bank. There's no turning back now!

And what about interest rates here?

They have to fall in line with short-term rates in France and Germany by January 1st. This means a drop of at least 2 percentage points from current levels, even allowing for a slight lift in continental EU rates. The Central Bank has indicated that it wants to hold off from such rate cuts for as long as possible, for fear of stoking inflation. But as everyone knows that rates are going to fall, it hardly seems worth the trouble keeping them up until the last minute possible.