AS the Canadian election campaign enters the final stretch, the comfortable lead of the outgoing Liberal government of Mr Jean Chretien has almost disappeared. The Prime Minister has for the first time warned that he may have to form a minority government as he appealed for voters to rally to the Liberals.
The latest opinion polls show Liberal support dipping below 40 per cent, as the right wing Reform Party from the west of Canada and the Bloc Quebecois which favours independence for the French speaking province increase their support. Both parties are competing to be the next official opposition after next Monday's election.
The Progressive Conservatives under their young leader, Mr Jean Charest, have faltered after doing well earlier in the campaign. They were virtually wiped out in the 1983 election which left them with a derisory two seats in the federal parliament and badly need to make a comeback as a national party if they are to survive.
The Liberals are still expected to hang on to power, but Mr Chretien's ploy of calling the election a year ahead of time on the basis of his economic record has misfired as the Reform Party leader, Mr Preston Manning, has dominated the campaign by raising the divisive question of Quebec's aim of separation from the rest of Canada.
An election which was supposed to be about Jobs and the economy has become dominated by the future of Quebec, which almost voted for independence in the 1995 referendum. The move to break away from the rest of Canada failed by only 52,000 votes and the Bloc Quebecois is getting ready to hold another referendum during the next two years.
Mr Manning has thrown both the Prime Minister, Mr Chretien, and the Conservative leader, Mr Charest, off balance by accusing them of treating Quebec with kid gloves and only encouraging its separatism. The Reform Party's TV ads point out that Messrs Chretien and Charest are also from Quebec and so not to be trusted on the independence issue. This has drawn outraged protests from the two leaders.
The way Mr Manning set the agenda, while his populist party has only 52 seats, has become a major issue in the campaign. The earnest 54 year old evangelical Christian has modernised his image with a blowdry hairstyle and elocution lessons to lower his squeaky voice.
He has also irritated his opponents by proposing that voters get the right to "recall" their member of parliament if they are not satisfied with his or her performance after 18 months. If enough signatures can be obtained the MP would have to stand for reelection.
The future shape of the federal parliament will be largely decided in the Ontario province which accounts for one third of the seats, This weekend most of the party leaders will be campaigning hard in the provincial capital, Toronto, and its surrounding industrialised towns.
The exception will be the leader of the Bloc Quebecois, Mr Gilles Duceppe, as the party has seats only in Quebec. The Bloc with 54 seats in the outgoing parliament was the official opposition but is now being challenged for this title by the Reform Party. After a disastrous early campaign support for the Bloc has been increasing.