ANALYSIS:Mubarak could step down in several ways. But trickery would soon fill the streets again
EGYPT’S VICE-president Omar Suleiman both misjudged and underestimated the pro-democracy camp when he called for the parents of protesters in Tahrir Square to ask their children to go home. His remark revealed he does not understand that the people in the square calling for the removal of president Hosni Mubarak are not “children” but grandparents who demonstrated in the 1960s and parents who protested in the 1970s. He also underestimates their determination to carry on until they effect not only the ouster of Mubarak but also full regime change.
Fearing their demands might not be met yesterday, the “day of [Mubarak’s] departure” protest organisers designated next Friday as the “day of the end” meaning the end of his 30-year reign. Having established their hold on Tahrir (Liberation) Square; seized the political initiative; reawakened the sleeping Egyptian people; and caught the imagination of the world, the protesters are not about to quietly pack up their pup tents and steal away.
They are convinced the regime’s response to their campaign has failed time and again. Analyst Mamdouh Habashi said the authorities have tried to beat the protesters into submission, scare western powers by blaming the Muslim Brotherhood, and claim that once Mubarak has gone, Egypt would descend into chaos. The regime also terrorised the populace by loosing hard elements from internal security onto the protesters. This “did not work and caused a scandal outside the country”, he observed.
For the moment, Mubarak seems to be determined to stay on. However, a well-connected source said two scenarios are being discussed. According to the first, Mubarak would remain president but hand his powers over to the regime led by three former senior military men – Suleiman, prime minister Ahmad Shafiq and interior minister Mahmoud Wagdy – who are backed by the armed forces. Once this takes place, Mubarak would withdraw to Sharm el-Shaikh or some other resort area.
The second scenario would involve Mubarak’s replacement by Arab League secretary general Amr Moussa, a former Egyptian foreign minister. Moussa is said to be a figure acceptable to the military and Washington but he has little popular backing.
Both scenarios would involve the effective imposition of army rule “behind a curtain”, the source stated. In his view, the people might be persuaded to leave the streets and squares once Mubarak had been stripped of his powers. This would give the regime – which would remain essentially intact – a breathing space to re-establish order and get the country going again. But in six to eight months, Egyptians would feel duped because they are expecting an end to the military-based regime and the introduction of real democratic freedoms and reforms.
In the view of the source, the US cannot “afford to lose the regime” and would connive at creating the illusion that a transitional government would be put in place. But it would not implement the changes demanded by the protesters. The calculation, he said, is that the protests cannot continue. He does not, however, believe that ending ongoing protests by means of a ruse will work.
The demonstrators “will return to the streets. The next time the protests will be more violent.”
