THERE IS a view in republican and nationalist circles that if inclusive political talks can be arranged quickly in Northern Ireland, it might be possible to salvage the IRA ceasefire. But in the immediate aftermath of the Canary Wharf bombing, that seems an impossible dream.
It would require exceptional risk taking by John Major, who is already under enormous domestic pressure, and a total shift in strategy by David Trimble. And the people of Northern Ireland would have to demand it.
The reality is that the IRA bomb in London has postponed, rather than advanced, the prospect of all party talks. And the inherent threat in the IRA statement of more bombs to come in Britain has made it impossible for the governments to talk directly to the Sinn Fein leadership. Contacts will be maintained, of course, but only at official level.
At this stage, peace politics could become a potent force in generating movement. During the ceasefire a consistent 80 per cent of the people of Northern Ireland supported the opening of political dialogue. During President Clinton's visit, that hunger for peace was translated into huge crowds on the streets of Derry and Belfast.
A recurrence of such demonstrations would not alone exert pressure on the IRA to abandon forever its strategy of advancing with "an Armalite in one hand and a ballot box in the other" but would generate across the board political pressure for an early, acceptable accommodation.
In spite of deep depression within Government over recent developments, John Bruton and Dick Spring are pushing hard for "proximity talks" at Stormont Castle, so that all parties could discuss the options, not necessarily face to face. President Clinton gave his support to the proposal last week, but that was before the London bombing.
An alternative strategy is being advocated by Fianna Fail. Its leader, Bertie Ahern, has proposed the nomination of George Mitchell as a special envoy to meet the various parties and propose a way forward. Mr Ahern will discuss the matter with Jean Kennedy Smith, the US ambassador, this morning, for transmission to President Clinton.
Such a radical internationalisation of the problem would almost certainly be rejected by the British government. And the treatment of his last efforts by Mr Major may not encourage Mr Mitchell to participate.
Mary Harney has taken a longer view. The Progressive Democrats leader has effectively accepted an on going IRA campaign as a reality and urged the two governments to proceed with talks in the absence of Sinn Fein.
These signs of fragmentation of the so called "pan nationalist front" are not mirrored at Westminster. There, Mr Major's endorsement of the unionist strategy of an electoral process retains bipartisan support.
Yesterday both Patrick Mayhew and John Taylor were busy promoting this approach in the teeth of firm resistance from the Government, the SDLP and Sinn, Fe in.
While officials spoke about the determination of their respective governments to bring about an agreed political settlement, there, was little sign of any middle ground being explored.
The Northern Ireland Secretary maintained that the injury done to the peace process was "not terminal," before going on to promote the idea of elections as a way forward.
At the same time, Mr Trimble was insisting that Sinn Fein would have "pariah status" within such an elected body, in the absence of a fresh ceasefire or "a clear and convincing demonstration that they are committed to exclusively democratic means
As if to emphasise that nothing had changed, Ian Paisley and Peter Robinson ruled out any talks in the foreseeable future with Sinn Fein.
Whatever calculation underlay the IRA's action, there is little doubt that the biggest political losers as a result of the London bombing have been Gerry Adams, Martin McGuinness, Mitchel McLaughlin and Pat Doherty.
Last night Mr Bruton and Mr Major agreed to concentrate on the restoration of the ceasefire.
They identified the establishment of all party talks as an important step in that process.
Even as they agreed these points, however, they were as divided as ever on the mechanisms to be used in securing their objectives.