FIVE PROMINENT political figures have expressed interest in contesting the presidential election next year, while a number of others are not ruling themselves out.
The five who have signalled their intent to be potential candidates are the Fianna Fáil MEP Brian Crowley; his party colleague Senator Mary White; Labour Party president Michael D Higgins; the party’s former senior adviser Fergus Finlay; and independent Senator David Norris.
Fine Gael MEP Mairéad McGuinness is considered to be her party’s most likely front-runner but she has said she has given it no thought to date.
She is not ruling herself out, however, nor is former taoiseach Bertie Ahern who has said only that the matter does not arise at the moment.
Mr Crowley, an MEP for 16 years, has emerged as the favourite to win the nomination for Fianna Fáil. Party strategists say his poll-topping performance in the European elections last year show that his personal brand transcends the party, which has seen a dramatic drop in support levels in the past year.
“He is honoured to be considered as a candidate but is just focusing on his job in Europe for the moment,” his spokesman said, adding that it was too early for any party to begin the process of choosing candidates.
Ms White, when contacted, also said she remained interested in the job. A spokesman for Mr Ahern did not rule out the possibility. He said the issue of the presidency did not arise for the former taoiseach at present.
Ms McGuinness said her name has “popped up” from time to time as a possible candidate for Fine Gael. But she said “I have not thought about it and am not making any decisions for now.”
Another senior Fine Gael figure who has been mentioned is former taoiseach John Bruton, who has given no public indication of his position. Former Fine Gael senator Maurice Manning has been mentioned also. Asked about his possible candidacy, he replied: “I have not thought about it at all.”
Two senior figures in the Labour Party have expressed an interest: Michael D Higgins and Fergus Finlay. In the days before the party’s national conference in April, Mr Finlay, a former senior official in the party, said he would be tempted to run.
“My gut says yes but I’m not too sure how to express that eloquently,” he said. Finlay, an adviser to two leaders, Dick Spring and Ruairí Quinn, has not held elected office.
Higgins, the other contender, was only a single vote short of being nominated by the party’s national executive in 2004, despite the then leadership opposing a candidate. He said this week that many of the party’s branches and individuals outside the party had contacted him to say they would back his candidacy. “I am giving thought to it and will consider my position,” he said.
There is strong agreement across the political spectrum that it will be the first contested election for 14 years.
A presidential election was set for October 2004 but when the nominations closed, the only candidate was the incumbent, President Mary McAleese, who was returned unopposed.
She is not allowed, under constitutional provisions, to serve a third term. The three major parties say that the election is not an immediate priority and are not expected to begin their internal nomination processes until the end of the year.
Labour leader Eamon Gilmore has said the party will turn its attention to the election at the end of this year. A party source said one major consideration was whether the presidential election would take place before or after the next general election. It is not due to take place until 2012 but the Government’s diminishing majority and continuing uncertainty over the economy could force an earlier election.
“If there was a change of government the dynamics might be different,” he said. “If a coalition was in government, it would be likely that they would search for an agreed candidate.”
Both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have said that the matter has not come up for consideration yet.
A senior Fianna Fáil figure, speaking on the basis of anonymity, said: “We have done nothing formal at all on it. I don’t think we will until the tail end of this year.”
Mr Norris said this week that, if he entered the race, it would most likely be as an independent candidate.
An outgoing president is allowed to nominate herself, under the Constitution, as Mrs McAleese did in 2004.
Other candidates must be over 35 years old and be nominated either by at least 20 members of Dáil or Seanad Éireann, or at least four county or city councils.
In 1997, two independent candidates, Rosemary “Dana” Scallon and Derek Nally, obtained nominations from five councils each. Ms Scallon declared that she would like to contest the 2004 election but failed to get the backing of four local authorities, or of 20 Oireachtas members.
Mr Norris said he decided to declare his interest in standing after a campaign on social networking sites backing his candidacy attracted support from more than 5,000 people. He said it was likely he would have to go down the same nomination route as Ms Scallon and Mr Nally.
“If a party nominated me, I would be quite happy to accept it, but I am not joining any party,” he said.
UNLIKELY CANDIDATES: DARLINGS OF THE RUMOUR MILL
Some whose names have surfaced in the media or political circles but who are unlikely to run:
Emily O'Reilly(Ombudsman and Information Commissioner and former journalist). Has said: "I have never intimated to anyone that I have any interest whatsoever in running for office of President."
Odds: 18/1
Dick Spring(former leader of the Labour Party and tánaiste). His name has been mentioned by several party members. Senior sources in the party doubt he would be interested.
Odds: not given
Gerry Adams(leader of Sinn Féin). A party spokesman said this week that Adams has never expressed any interest in the post and would not be a candidate.
Odds: 50/1
* All odds quoted are from Paddy Power
IRELAND'S PRESIDENTS
1. Douglas Hyde 1938-1945
2. Seán T O’Kelly 1945-1959
3. Éamon de Valera 1959-1973
4. Erskine Childers 1973-1974
5. Cearbhall Ó Dálaigh 1974-1976
6. Patrick Hillery 1976-1990
7. Mary Robinson 1990-1997
8. Mary McAleese 1997-present