PRESSURE for an early British election is mounting as Mr John Major's government finally slipped into a minority following the death of a Conservative MP.
The death of Mr Iain Mills left Mr Tony Blair pondering the prospects for a no confidence vote, and the nine Ulster Unionists holding the whip hand.
Mr Major insisted it was "business as usual". A Downing Street spokesman said it was Mr Major's view that "the government will remain the government" and warned the Opposition parties not to expect an early election.
However, senior Ulster Unionists suggested that Mr Major might opt for a March poll, rather than risk losing control of the government's fate through a series of Commons defeats culminating in a confidence vote.
And, amid signs that the Conservative election machine is ready to roll, other parties cast doubt on assurances by Mr Major, and the Conservative Party chairman, Dr Brian Mawhinney, that they are prepared to hold the pending by election in the Wirral just weeks before a general election.
Sources last night said the government had been advised by its private pollsters that there is unlikely to be any significant swing back to the Tories until the election campaign is under way.
Even before the announcement of Mr Mills's death, government business managers were facing up to the prospect of a protracted guerilla campaign by Labour and the Liberal Democrats, who have suspended all pairing arrangements for Commons votes.
One practical consequence of the government losing its majority is that the Opposition parties are disputing the government's right to a majority on important Standing Committees. It is understood that on Wednesday Labour refused to nominate members to the Committee on the Finance Bill. And it emerged last nights "that, unless the government agrees some compromise formula Labour might seek to force the issue in a Commons vote, probably in the week after next.
The indications last night were that the Ulster Unionists would back parliamentary precedent and vote with the Opposition parties on that issue. Earlier this week, the UUP leader, Mr David Trimble, warned the government that his MPs were also prepared to vote against it during the Committee stage of the Finance Bill on the proposed doubling of airport tax.
Failure to reach agreement with the Opposition parties on the composition of standing committees could ultimately force the government to try and take all its legislation through its various stages on the floor of the House of Commons. And while defeats on individual issues like airport tax would not in themselves trigger a confidence vote, the cumulative effect - coupled with possible defeat in the Wirral by election - could reinforce the image of a government incapable of governing and merely postponing the inevitable.