FRANCE: The two likely presidential contenders in France are very similar, writes Lara Marlowe
The French presidential election campaign that is expected to usher in a new political century started in earnest this week, with the resumption of normal life after the long summer holiday.
If, as appears likely, the socialist president of the Poitou-Charentes region, Ségolène Royal, faces the right-wing interior minister Nicolas Sarkozy in the run-off on May 6th, 2007, France could elect a woman head of state for the first time in history.
And for the first time, power will pass from the pre-second World War generation to baby-boomers in their early 50s. In recent months, Royal has been the undisputed "Madonna of the opinion polls", but the race is too close to call this far in advance.
Royal's foreign policy remains unknown. But if Sarkozy wins, the French tradition of challenging US "hegemony" and nurturing a special relationship with Arab regimes will probably end. Sarkozy is the country's most pro-American - and pro-Israeli - politician. He favours a club of big countries to run Europe.
Royal has lived for a quarter of a century with Francois Hollande, the leader of the Socialist party, with whom she has four children. Nothing came of her hint that they might marry in French Polynesia this summer.
The party leader is the natural candidate for the presidency, and Hollande has kept the option of standing open, though he is far less popular than his partner.
In addition to the Royal-Hollande couple, there are four serious contenders for the Socialist nomination, to be decided by party members in November: former cabinet ministers Laurent Fabius, Jack Lang and Dominique Strauss-Kahn, and former prime minister Lionel Jospin.
These party "elephants" detest "Ségolène" and will do anything to prevent her from gaining the socialist nomination. At the party's summer school at the end of August, she was severely criticised for refusing to participate in a question-and-answer session with the Young Socialist Movement.
Strauss-Kahn noted that it was "a militant commitment to come and debate, when others refuse". Alluding to the vagueness of Royal's programme, Fabius said: "You can't say 'we'll see' on every subject. It's a question of intellectual honesty."
Royal's socialist rivals constantly carp about American-style peopolisation - the latest Anglicism to enter French political vocabulary.
Royal's star status rose this summer when a photographer "stole" pictures of her wearing a turquoise bikini on her summer holiday. Laurence Piau, editor of Closer magazine which published the images, justified her decision, saying, "Elle est un people."
But this week, accusations of peopolisation have been levelled at Sarkozy, after he enlisted Johnny Halliday (France's 63-year-old answer to Elvis Presley) and Doc Gynéco (a black rap star) in his campaign.
Doc Gynéco says he met Sarkozy during rioting in the immigrant suburbs last November. A self-described welfare addict for 25 years, the rap singer called young men from the banlieues "clowns" for being angry that Sarkozy called them "scum" and threatened to clean the suburbs with a power hose.
In the latest issue of Lyon Mag, Royal denounced the "sexism" of French politics and claimed that if she were a man, the socialist party would already have "rallied" around her. The magazine published a poll showing she would beat Sarkozy by 53 per cent to 47 per cent.
But the most sexist comment yet came from a woman who once served in the same cabinet as Royal: Martine Aubry, the socialist mayor of Lille. The presidential election was a question of "vision", Aubry said. "The important thing is not having good measurements."
Meanwhile, Lionel Jospin, who claimed he was leaving politics after losing out in the first round of the 2002 election, has resurfaced. "I know I am capable of assuming the duties of a head of state," Jospin said this week.
At the Socialists' summer school, Jospin gave a long, dull, speech explaining why he lost the last election.
When a young woman asked him: "Comrade, why did you leave? Have you come back?", he said a defeated general could not lead his troops back into battle. Tears filled his eyes and he choked up, unable to continue.
Royal relished the moment. "Analysis of the past is useful, but what counts is building the future," she commented gleefully on Jospin's show of emotion. She has named her own "current" within the socialist party Désirs d'Avenir (Desires for the Future).
Like Royal's, Sarkozy's slogan, Imaginons La France d'Apres (Let's Imagine France After) is vapid and future-oriented. Unlike Royal, Sarkozy faces little or no opposition from his own camp. He refers to her condescendingly as "Madame Royal". She never mentions his name, alluding instead to "the Narcissus of the UMP".
The two main candidates are similar in many ways.
Both have expressed admiration for the British prime minister Tony Blair, leading Howard Davies, director of the London School of Economics, to observe in yesterday's Le Figaro newspaper how odd is this engouement when Blair's credibility long ago collapsed in Britain.
In their speeches, both candidates talk about the need for order in society, authority, respect, merit, effort, work and firmness.
Both have criticised the 35-hour working week - established by the socialists - and what they see as welfare free-loaders.
Like Sarkozy, Royal initially opposed marriage between homosexuals and the adoption of children by gays.
But she had to accept both when they were written into the socialist party's presidential election platform.
In recent days, Sarkozy has copied Royal's proposal for an obligatory "civic service" to bring young people of different backgrounds together and teach them loyalty to French society.
So far, the only serious ideological clash between Royal and Sarkozy has centred on the right to strike, which Sarkozy would like to limit by organising a secret ballot "to stop the dictatorship of certain minorities" within businesses, universities and public services.
Important issues facing France include the continuing malaise of the banlieues and the country's difficulty in adapting to economic globalisation.
But so far there is little sign of serious political debate in this campaign.
Candidates, media and the public are too focused on les people.