Cronyism, corruption, a flagging economy and growing instability have combined to push down approval ratings for the unpredictable Philippines President, Mr Joseph Estrada, from 65 per cent a year ago to just over 20 per cent today. The former film star, known by the nickname of "Erap", is now taking on one of the riskiest roles of his colourful career - that of personally negotiating the release of 21 mostly foreign tourists held by Muslim militants on the southern island of Jolo.
"He gave the green light. . . and hopefully by Wednesday the actual negotiations would start," his adviser, Mr Robert Aventajado, said yesterday, revealing that the President had asked for a written list of demands. Coming shortly after the Defence Secretary, Mr Orlando Mercado's blunt statement, "we do not negotiate with terrorist movements", the new line acknowledges the failure of Mr Estrada's strategy of military action against the rebel Abu Sayyaf group, and a new readiness to bargain with his enemies on issues ranging from greater autonomy to fishing rights.
Mr Estrada had earlier engaged the army in a bloody fight with the larger rebel army, the Muslim Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), fueling suspicions that he wanted to divert attention from recent scandals and unite the mainly Christian population of the Philippines behind him. In the fetid atmosphere of Philippine politics, the "Wag the Dog" theory of diversionary politics is taken seriously, and there are even suggestions that pro-government forces are behind Abu Sayyaf's action, as a means of discrediting mainstream Muslim rebels.
Was it coincidental that the kidnappings should occur "at a time when military authorities think they have enough firepower around the MILF's Camp Abubakar to quash the rebels in time for a June-or-never surrender deadline?" asked author Said Sadain in Saturday's Daily Inquirer. The "President of the poor" is accused by his critics of ignoring the legitimate grievances of the mostly impoverished and landless Muslims who now form a minority on Mindanao island, the "bread basket" of the Philippines, which they controlled a century ago.
"The uncomplaining Muslim masses are left alone to suffer in poverty with slow and meagre government services or in total neglect," said Mr Patricio Diaz, a former newspaper editor in Mindanao.
Many Catholic clergy see the need for a change in government policy towards the Muslim population. "I myself would support greater autonomy for Muslims," said New Zealand-born Father Paul Finlayson at the headquarters in Manila of the Columban Fathers, which includes about 40 Irish priests. Some Muslim leaders discern a possible advantage in testing a government in chaos. "We want a President who is weak," said the rebel leader, Mr Shariff Julabbi, MILF commander of the West Mindanao and Sulu Islands, in an interview in Zamboanga. "Estrada is weak and the most stupid guy. He gives ultimatums like `over my dead body' but we call his bluff." Many of the people who swept Mr Estrada into office two years ago are also calling his bluff, with street demonstrations in Manila calling for his resignation as an ineffective President prone to blatant cronyism. Share prices have fallen to an 18-month low because of an insider dealing fiasco in January, the peso has steadily weakened, and investment has steadily fallen away due to instability. The Asian Development Bank predicts that GDP growth will be the lowest in Asia this year, behind Vietnam and Indonesia.
The economy is fundamentally in good shape and Mr Estrada has promoted reform in the energy sector, stock exchange and banking, but the pace of change is judged by economists to be slower than under President Ramos - and the principle of reform is now being abandoned.
Last year, the President cancelled an air services agreement with Taiwan to protect Philippines Airlines, owned by his buddy, the tycoon Mr Lucio Tan, for whom Mr Estrada had already quashed a tax evasion case. The country "is beginning to drop off my radar screen," said Mr Bill Belchere, regional economist at Merrill Lynch in Singapore, a former fan of the Philippines.
Last autumn Sister Christine Tan, beloved for her work with the poor, resigned as director of the Philippines Charity Sweepstakes Offices, alleging that 87 per cent of lottery funds were being diverted to support the programmes of the President and his family - which Mr Estrada denies.
Much of the criticism of Mr Estrada centres on his lifestyle. The 63-year-old figure with drooping moustache and bedroom eyes still appeals to many poor Filipinos because of his Robin Hood film roles. However he has allegedly usurped the cabinet system by making 3.00 a.m. calls to ministers with projects suggested by business friends at all-night parties and karaoke sessions in the presidential palace. He once rang a television show and declared to a former government official with whom he had fallen out: "May lightning strike you down." President "Erap" has now put his personal credibility on the line in the hostage crisis. His weakness makes it likely that the captors will hold out for major concessions, which is bad news for the foreign tourists held on Jolo. They could be there for a very long time.