MIDDLE EAST: Amid considerable fanfare, Palestinians formally reopened Gaza's Rafah crossing into Egypt yesterday, three months after the last Israeli troops rolled out of the Strip after 38 years of occupation.
If elections were held today in Israel, Ariel Sharon would win a third term as prime minister, he would most likely invite the Labour Party to join him in government, and he would succeed in reducing his former party, the Likud, to a political afterthought.
This is the scenario that emerges from two opinion polls published yesterday that show Kadima (Forward), the new party set up this week by Mr Sharon, winning 33-34 seats in the 120-seat parliament, the Labour Party winning 26-28, and the Likud in a state of electoral meltdown, plummeting from its current 40 seats to a paltry 13.
According to the poll published in the mass circulation Maariv, Mr Sharon's new party and Labour would even command sufficient mandates to form a ruling coalition after the March 28th ballot, without having to take any other partners on board.
While Labour chairman Amir Peretz, the union leader who spectacularly ousted Shimon Peres earlier this month, had said he would not join a Likud-led government after the election, he has not repeated that pledge with regard to Mr Sharon's new party.
A Sharon-Peretz union could form the basis for future Israeli withdrawals in the West Bank. After all, the main reason Mr Sharon bolted the Likud was his fear that if re-elected, he would still be saddled with a party filled with lawmakers opposed to any further dismantling of settlements.
The glum expressions on the faces of the Likud leaders at the first major party gathering since Mr Sharon's departure on Thursday night in Tel Aviv, reflect the deep crisis within the party. "We are only four days after they [ Sharon] tried to split the Likud," said education minister Limor Livnat, reflecting the hope that her party can still rebound.
But as the Likud licks its wounds, more are being inflicted by the leadership battle precipitated by Mr Sharon's departure.
While Bejamin Netanyahu, the finance minister who resigned in protest over the Gaza pullout, remains the clear front-runner, six senior Likud figures have entered the leadership race, including defence minister Shaul Mofaz and foreign minister Silvan Shalom.
If these two join forces, they could still pose a threat to Mr Netanyahu when the leadership primary is held on December 19th.
For now, the election looks like being a showdown between Mr Sharon and Mr Peretz, who has breathed new life into Labour, which has been on the defensive ever since the Camp David summit collapsed in July 2000 and the Intifada erupted two months later.
With his working-class background, the Moroccan-born Mr Peretz will also try to draw in traditional Likud voters. During his visit yesterday to the Carmel fruit and vegetable market in Tel Aviv - a classic Likud stronghold - he was welcomed with handshakes and kisses, not a salvo of rotten tomatoes.
With the elections still four months away, much can change. In 1996, Mr Netanyahu overcame a double-digit deficit in the polls to beat Mr Peres.