FIANNA Fáil Minister of State Martin Mansergh looks set to lose his Dáil seat in Tipperary South, according to an Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI constituency poll.
The poll, conducted using a sample ballot paper, also shows that former Fianna Fáil TD Mattie McGrath will be in a battle for the final seat in the three-seat constituency with Labour Party senator Phil Prendergast. Fine Gael TD Tom Hayes, and former Independent TD Séamus Healy, who is running under the United Left Alliance banner, lead the poll with a quota each and both look assured of election.
The Fianna Fáil vote has plummeted to 10 per cent in the poll, down from 46 per cent in the last general election, and it looks as if the party will be left without a TD in Tipperary South.
Even if the support going to Mr McGrath, who was elected for Fianna Fáil in 2007, is added to the 10 per cent achieved in the poll by Mr Mansergh, the party’s vote is still down almost by half since 2007.
Mr McGrath is running as an Independent, having left Fianna Fáil just before the election.
In 2007, Mr Mansergh was one of the surprise performers, taking Mr Healy’s seat by a narrow margin.
This time, the Minister of State at the Department of Finance has less than half a quota and his only chance of election is if he can muster enough support between now and February 25th to get ahead of Mr McGrath on the first count.
The poll shows that at the halfway mark in the campaign Mr McGrath is significantly ahead of Mr Mansergh, but he is by no means assured of a seat as the transfers from Mr Mansergh are going to him at a ratio of less than 50 per cent.
At this stage is looks as if Ms Prendergast will be battling with Mr McGrath for the final seat. Her vote is up from 9 per cent in 2007 to 14 per cent in the poll and she is comfortably ahead of the second Fine Gael candidate, Michael Murphy.
The Fine Gael vote is up by 10 points to 31 per cent, with the party’s leading candidate, Tom Hayes, heading for a quota of 25 per cent on the first count. It is possible that Mr Hayes and Mr Healy could be elected on the first count, with the elimination of the lower-placed candidates deciding the fate of the third seat.
Sinn Féin candidate Michael Browne has not made a significant impact, according to the poll, but he has increased his party’s share of the vote, while Green Party candidate Paul McNally has failed to register.
The survey was conducted last Friday and Monday in 500 in-home interviews at 50 sampling points across the constituency. Voters were given sample ballot papers and the margin of error is plus or minus 4.5 per cent.
