Fianna Fail's candidates are performing extremely strongly in the European election campaign, with five set to exceed the quota on the first count, according to the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll.
The party seems certain to retain its seven seats and has a possibility of taking an eighth.
Excluding the 14 per cent undecided, the state of the parties is: Fianna Fail, 51 per cent (up five percentage points since the last poll on May 10th); Fine Gael, 25 per cent (up one point); Labour, 11 per cent (down four points); Green Party, four per cent (up two points); Sinn Fein, three per cent (unchanged); Progressive Democrats two per cent (down three points); Workers' Party, one percent (unchanged); others three per cent (down one point).
Satisfaction with the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, has risen nine points to 67 per cent. Mr Bruton's personal rating is down three points to 43 per cent; Mr Quinn is down three points to 52 per cent; Ms Mary Harney is down two points to 61 per cent.
The poll was conducted among a larger than usual national quota sample of 1,600 voters at 160 sampling points throughout all constituencies in the State on Wednesday and Thursday this week. It shows Fianna Fail likely to win at least seven European Parliament seats, Fine Gael four, the Labour Party one, and independent Mr Pat Cox one.
The remaining two seats are those held by the Green Party, which is fighting to retain its representation in Dublin and Leinster but faces challenges for each seat from Fianna Fail and Fine Gael.
In Dublin, the poll shows Mr Niall Andrews MEP easily topping the poll on 27 per cent followed by Ms Mary Banotti MEP on 22 per cent. Mr Proinsias De Rossa on 12 per cent is polling very clearly ahead of his running mate, sitting MEP Ms Bernie Malone (five per cent).
Mr DeRossa seems likely to be elected, and Ms Malone is in serious danger of losing her seat. The poll indicates Green MEP Ms Patricia McKenna will be competing against Mr Ben Briscoe for the final seat.
Fianna Fail's two outgoing MEPs in Leinster - Mr Liam Hyland (22 per cent) and Mr Jim Fitzsimons (19 per cent) - appear set for election, as does Fine Gael's Ms Avril Doyle (20 per cent). This leaves Green MEP Ms Nuala Ahern (13 per cent) competing with Fine Gael MEP Mr Alan Gillis (13 per cent) for the final seat. The seat may be decided on the transfers of Labour candidate Mr Sean Butler (nine per cent) which favour Ms Ahern.
In Munster, Fianna Fail's two outgoing MEPs, Mr Brian Crowley (32 per cent) and Mr Gerard Collins (25 per cent), will be easily elected on the first count with Mr Pat Cox (15 per cent) benefiting enough from their large surpluses to be re-elected. The final seat will be fought out between the two Fine Gael candidates, Mr John Cushnahan and Mr Jim Corr, both on eight per cent, with the poll showing Mr Cushnahan benefiting marginally more than Mr Corr from transfers at this stage.
In the three seat Connacht/Ulster constituency Fianna Fail's Mr Pat the Cope Gallagher (26 per cent) and Mr Noel Treacy (23 per cent), and Fine Gael's Mr Joe McCartin (21 per cent) will be elected. Two of the independents, Ms Dana Rosemary Scallon and Ms Marian Harkin, are polling well at nine per cent each.
Voters preferred options for a new coalition after the next general election are: Fianna Fail/PD 26 per cent; Fianna Fail/Labour 19 per cent; Fine Gael/Labour 18 per cent; Fine Gael/Labour/Progressive Democrats nine per cent; Fianna Fail/Fine Gael 7 per cent.