A clear majority in both Northern Ireland and the Republic believe an all-party executive should be set up at Stormont later this month, according to the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll published today. This includes a majority of supporters of the Ulster Unionist Party.
While a majority supported the key proposal to form an executive, which was contained in the British-Irish document, The Way Forward, the poll reflected widespread doubts that the plan would be successfully implemented.
A total of 65 per cent in the North and 84 per cent in the Republic said they believed the multi-party executive should be formed, as proposed, on July 18th. This included 59.5 per cent of Ulster Unionist Party supporters in the North.
Respondents were presented with the key proposals in The Way Forward for a multi-party executive by July 18th and complete decommissioning of paramilitary arms by May 2000. A total of 75 per cent in the North and 85 per cent in the Republic said decommissioning should go ahead as planned. This included 65 per cent of Sinn Fein supporters in the North.
Calls for a statement from the Provisional IRA giving its backing to The Way Forward proposals were supported by 76 per cent in Northern Ireland and 82 per cent in the Republic. This included 61 per cent of Sinn Fein and 79 per cent of SDLP supporters in the North.
The poll was directed in the Republic and Northern Ireland by MRBI for The Irish Times among a sample of 1,000 voters in each jurisdiction. Fieldwork was carried out on Wednesday and Thursday and was conducted in Northern Ireland by PriceWaterhouseCoopers.
The desire to see the provisions of the Belfast Agreement implemented was not matched by an equal level of confidence that this would take place. Only 15 per cent in the North and 9 per cent in the Republic declared themselves "very confident" that the agreement would be fully implemented by May 2000. However, 29 per cent in the North and 42 per cent in the Republic would be "fairly confident" of this. There was also a lack of confidence that paramilitary decommissioning would be completed within 10 months as planned. Only 26 per cent in the North and 27 per cent in the Republic believed it would.
The UUP will make a final decision next week on whether the British government's proposed "fail-safe" legislation is sufficient for the executive to be established. The poll shows that 46 per cent overall in the North and 43 per cent in the Republic are satisfied with the legislative guarantee. Among UUP supporters, 37 per cent believe the legislation is a sufficient guarantee, whereas 45 per cent do not and 18 per cent are undecided.
A certain amount of slippage is evident in Northern Ireland voters' attitudes to the Belfast Agreement. Whereas 64 per cent in the North said they voted Yes in last year's referendum, 58 per cent said they would vote Yes if the referendum was repeated. A total of 23 per cent said they voted No last year and 27 per cent would vote No in a second referendum. Most of the slippage occurred among Protestant voters, 51 per cent of whom said they voted Yes last year, but this figure would drop to 41 per cent if there was a second chance to vote.
However, backing for the agreement in the Republic had increased, from 73 per cent who said they voted Yes last year to 85 per cent who would support the agreement today.
On the issue of whether the executive should continue without any parties which did not abide by the rules of the agreement in relation to decommissioning or powersharing, 65 per cent in the North and 55 per cent in the Republic said that it should. This included 57 per cent of SDLP supporters and 81 per cent from the UUP but only 27 per cent from Sinn Fein.
A majority in each jurisdiction expressed satisfaction with the manner in which both governments have been handling the negotiations. London's satisfaction ratings were 57 per cent in the North and 81 per cent in the Republic. Dublin scored 63 per cent in the North and 86 per cent in the Republic.