Poll setback further erodes the Paisley dynasty

A poor byelection means the problems are piling up for Ian Paisley, writes Dan Keenan , Northern News Editor.

A poor byelection means the problems are piling up for Ian Paisley, writes Dan Keenan, Northern News Editor.

Beware reading too much into byelection results - that's the standard advice.

A quirky one-off local poll with a lowish turnout (40 per cent) can seem to produce a dramatic result which, if replicated across the board, would drain the colour from the electoral map.

Sometimes the temptation is to commit the alternative sin and to wave away the evidence of the ballot box, dismissing it as an insignificant blip.

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But to do so in the case of last week's Banbridge Council byelection could be a serious mistake, particularly if you are First Minister and leader of the DUP.

For Jim Allister, a DUP quitter over the decision to enter government with republicans, and founding father of the Traditional Unionist Voice, the message of the poll is clear. The unionists of the town of Dromore, called to vote last Wednesday, have already had their fill of Ian Paisley and Martin McGuinness grinning together as if the Troubles had never happened, he believes. They are sick of the DUP talking tough then "doing a Trimble" and they want to stand on solid rejectionist ground where, let's face it, good foundations are long established.

From Allister's fundamentalist standpoint, Thursday's result is the expected unionist reaction to a clear case of sacrificing principle for expediency.

That's not the kind of charge Paisley can wave away no matter how much he would like to. For this is the latest local difficulty in a host of similar problems.

Seen in this context, Banbridge is not just a bad mid-term result. It is the latest in the series of mini reversals which, when combined, are nibbling away at the stature of the Paisley dynasty.

Last week's poll reversal follows his departure as moderator of his Free Presbyterian Church partly in response to levels of unease among his flock about his positions as head of the church and First Minister alongside Martin McGuinness.

Add to that the bad news stories surrounding Ian Paisley jnr and the recent Irish Times report, vociferously denied of course, that the Doc is not to defend his Westminster seat at the next election.

Combine them all and you could be witnessing a slow crumbling of the unionist colossus. The Big Man isn't walking quite so tall these days.

Judging by the levels of barracking from the back of the count centre on Thursday this was a stinging result for the DUP. It was a contest they had triggered and clearly expected to win.

What made it easier for some of Allister's mud to stick to the defeated DUP candidate was the presence in Dublin of Paisley alongside McGuinness, the Taoiseach et al as the result was made known.

Allister's onwards-and- upwards remarks after the declaration may be a tad premature, as Paisley rightly pointed out the following day. He could have a significant fight on his hands next year to retain the EU Parliament seat, vacated by Dr Paisley, which he won while wearing a DUP rosette.

For the Ulster Unionists this was a win to savour and, probably, to exaggerate. They may well enjoy their day, but should avoid believing their own propaganda entirely. What was more encouraging for them was the age profile and gender balance of the many workers they had at the count. Their Zimmer frame image has been dented by the triumphant smiling face of Carol Black.

At the other end of the Banbridge results table was the virtually unnoticed micro battle between the SDLP and Sinn Féin. Their contest, right in the heart of the unionist pale, did not readily grab the attention. But it was Sinn Féin which clearly beat the SDLP in an area where it used to be outperformed. Not only that, but 60 per cent of SDLP first-preference voters then transferred to the Sinn Féin candidate.

The SDLP should take note of that result - just as the DUP would do well to consider its own.