THE results of the next general election are open to a legal challenge unless the Constituency Boundary Commission redraws the constituency borders on the basis of the latest census figures.
After examining population distribution figures from the 1991 Census, the commission redrew some of the State's 41 constituency boundaries 18 months ago. Under law, the constituency boundaries should be redrawn on the last census conducted but, since then, new figures have become available.
It is understood that the 1995 census shows population shifts in a number of rural constituencies which could lead to major difficulties if a general election goes ahead with the constituencies based on the 1991 figures.
It is not known if the Government is to appoint an ad-hoc boundary commission to undertake a fresh review of the boundaries in the light of the new information provided by the 1995 census returns.
The overall population figures have been released but it is understood that details of the so-called district electoral divisions, on which the commission bases its deliberations, have not yet come to hand.
A former MEP, Mr Chris O'Malley, unsuccessfully challenged the outcome of the 1989 general election on the basis that a constituency revision had not taken place on the then last census of 1985.
If the next general election goes ahead in the absence of another commission review, there is speculation in political circles that any citizen may decide to challenge the holding of the poll, as well as the whole result, in the courts.
The number of seats in any constituency is based on the distribution of the population in that area within the parameters set down by the Constitution. There must be 20,000 people and not more than 30,000 in a constituency to have one deputy returned to the Dail.
The Electoral Bill presently before the Dail provides for the establishment of an electoral boundary commission on a statutory basis - rather than the present ad-hoc arrangement which is dependent on the wishes of the government of the day. The Bill proposes that the present commission membership would become members of the statutory body.
It is made up of a High Court judge, nominated by the president of the High Court; the Ombudsman, Mr Kevin Murphy; the secretary of the Department of the Environment, Mr Brendan O'Donoghue; the clerk of the Dail, Mr Ciaran Coughlan, and the clerk of the Seanad, Ms Deirdre Lane.
The last review took three months to conclude and it is believed that in the event of an early general election, there would not be time for another review to take place. Changes in the constituencies require not just the review, but its enactment into law by the passage of legislation in both Houses of the Oireachtas.
There is no question of a "quick-fix solution", one source last night said. The situation presents the Government with an additional headache if it intends to go to the country early in 1997. There is growing speculation that the general election will take place in the first three months of next year.
Five constituencies were substantially redrawn, with a change in their Dail seat numbers, in the last review which was concluded in April 1995. There was no change in the overall Dail numbers but the two three-seat constituencies in Mayo were reshaped into one five-seat constituency.
Tipperary South, a four-seater, was changed to a three-seater, effectively rendering it a two-seat constituency if the Ceann Comhairle, Mr Sean Treacy, decides to stand again.
All the changes drawn up by the commission are due to come into effect in the next general election.