Varadkar to meet Macron amid Westminister Brexit impasse

Good morning.

Leo Varadkar travels to Paris today to meet French president Emmanuel Macron, with hopes the House of Commons could point the way to a softer Brexit dashed by another round of inconclusive indicative votes last night.

It is the first of two major bilaterals for the Taoiseach this week. Angela Merkel is in Dublin this Thursday, and Varadkar is expected to press both leaders on the case for a long extension of the article 50 negotiating process while also discussing Ireland’s preparedness for a no-deal Brexit, including how to handle the Border.

The risk is the continuing impasse in Westminster leads more EU leaders to ask what any further extension would achieve, with Macron already sceptical.

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Last week, Varadkar said the EU should consider such an extension if the UK had fundamentally reconsidered its Brexit position, clearly in the hope the House of Commons would vote in favour of remaining in the customs union or other options.

Yet the Commons last night rejected all the possibilities put in front of it - Norway-plus, customs union, a confirmatory referendum and allowing for the revocation of Article 50 - although the customs union option, tabled by veteran Tory Ken Clarke, lost by only three votes. Early indications that the DUP’s 10 MPs would abstain gave way a straight no to all questions from Arlene Foster’s party.

Our lead story is here, and Denis Staunton looks forward to today's meeting of Theresa May's divided cabinet here, with suggestions a general election could be up for discussion.

From Brussels, the view is likely to remain unchanged: that London has said time and again what it does not want but has yet to say what it does. The legal position is that the UK will leave the EU on April 12th - Friday week.

May is expected to put the withdrawal agreement to MPs again this week, and its passage would mean the UK leaving with a deal on May 22nd. But she may be forced to seek another extension at a special European Council on April 10th if she is unsuccessful.

Macron is said to be one of the EU leaders who has serious reservations about a longer extension - past May 22nd - that would require the UK take part in the European Parliament elections. Merkel is understood not to share Macron’s harder line on another extension.

While at times Dublin has publicly repeated the Brussels line that an extension must be for a reason - a new position, referendum or general election - it desperately wants to avoid a no-deal Brexit. However, the patience of Macron and others - Guy Verhofstadt last night said a no-deal exit is “nearly inevitable” - is wearing thin.

The prospect of no deal - which would be achieved chiefly through a dialogue of the deaf between London and Brussels - may begin to appeal to some EU members as a swift way of clearing Brexit out of the way.

In his meeting today, Varadkar will both have to strongly argue against such a view and discuss his preparations for no-deal planning. Since both the Macron and Merkel meetings were announced, Government Buildings has rejected any suggestions Varadkar will come under pressure to detail how he will deal with the Border in a no-deal scenario.

There is talk about checks along the lines of those floated by Michel Barnier when he spoke last summer of de-dramatising the backstop, such as at points of origin, destination or at places such as Dublin Port.

Other Brexit highlights from today's paper include Patrick Freyne talking to full time anti-Brexit protester Steve Bray, and Simon Carswell writing that the UK is under under pressure to clarify immigration rules that human rights activists say undermine the rights of Northern Ireland-born Irish citizens under the Belfast Agreement.

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Fintan O'Toole says Brexit is making the State look better than it is.

Also on the op-ed pages, Michael C Murphy says we cannot let the effectiveness of the Defence Forces slip.

Playbook

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar travels to Paris to meet French president Emmanuel Macron. The Cabinet will meet in the morning, adjourn and then resume later tonight when the Taoiseach returns from Paris.

Dáil

Leaders’ Questions is at 2pm, followed by the Order of Business.

Minister for Transport, Tourism and Sport Shane Ross is on oral questions.

The Retention of Records Bill 2019 is at second stage.

Sinn Féin has PMB calling for an all-Ireland autism strategy.

Seanad

The Wildlife (Amendment) Bill 2016 is at committee stage, and the Judicial Council Bill 2017 is also at committee stage.

Committees

The Employment Affairs and Social Protection committee discusses Indecon reports on job clubs and local employment services with the Irish Local Development Network and Siptu.

Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform and Taoiseach’s discuss Sinn Féin’s “No consent, no sale” Bill with the Department of Finance and the Central Bank.

Communications, Climate Action and the Environment goes through departmental estimates with Richard Bruton. It will also discuss the Commission for the Regulation of Utilities in relation to a power point application by Mayo Renewable Energy.

Business, Enterprise and Innovation has pre-legislative scrutiny of the Companies (Corporate Enforcement Authority) Bill 2018 with the Law Reform Commission and the Company Law Review Group.

Agriculture, Food and the Marine goes through the estimates with Minister Michael Creed.