Politics

McCabe controversy places future of Government in balance

Analysis: Decision by Nóirín O’Sullivan not to step aside means crisis is far from defused

Garda Commissioner Nóirín O’Sullivan insists she will not step aside following the controversy over allegations concerning Maurice McCabe. Photograph: Collins

Pat Leahy's face
Pat Leahy
Mon Feb 13 2017 - 13:12

Facing a motion of no confidence in the Dail on Tuesday, with the Cabinet divided and a rift between the coalition parties and Fianna Fáil, this is a moment of acute political crisis for the Government.

At present it is an open question whether the Government will survive the week.

After the Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin called on the Garda Commissioner to assess her position this morning – a significant shift in his position since last week – the expectation around political circles was Nóirín O’Sullivan would step down this morning.

However, the robust statement issued by the commissioner, in which she firmly defended her position and refused to step down, has scotched that expectation.

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Had she gone, the political crisis would have been defused. Now it is far from defused.

Desperate behind the scenes contacts will be taking place all day as the coalition seeks to agree on new terms of reference for the commission of investigation which are likely to specifically include reference to the bizarre episode of the incorrect Tusla file on Sgt McCabe and its ill-founded investigation.

Those new terms of reference will have to be agreed with Fianna Fáil, though that is unlikely to present the biggest problem.

Both the Government and Fianna Fáil are pretty much agreed on what they want the commission to do.

More problematic will be the task of clearing the air within Government and between the Government and Fianna Fáil.

The Minister for Children Katherine Zappone flies in from the US on Monday. She will have to answer questions, both from her Cabinet colleagues and the media, about what she told them and what she did not about the McCabe case.

Minister for Justice Frances Fitzgerald remains at odds with the Fianna Fáil spokesman Jim O'Callaghan about what was discussed between the two at a meeting on Wednesday evening about the Tusla file on the McCabes.

Both are definitive in their accounts; both cannot be right. The discrepancy will have to be explained jointly before any agreement can be reached between the two parties.

The Cabinet needs to be in a position to agree an account of what actually happened last week – and if there were misunderstandings, how they came about – and also with Fianna Fáil.

Then it will have to agree on the next steps and whether the Government and Fianna Fáil are content for the commissioner to remain in office.

If agreement on all these issues cannot be reached before the Cabinet meets on Tuesday morning at Government Buildings, then it is hard to see how they can defend a motion of no confidence.

The future of the Government hangs in the balance.

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