Bank of England gives chilling warning of UK slump in no-deal Brexit

It's a non-Brexit political digest today.

I’m joking. That’s like saying it’s going to be a traffic-free M50 at rush hour on a wet Thursday morning in late November. For the moment, it is the unavoidable - if not the most exciting - part of our days.

The latest twist in the tale is a chilling assessment from the Bank of England, which has warned of Britain suffering its worst economic slump since the second World War.

The Bank of England has said gross domestic product in the United Kingdom would be at least 1 per cent higher in five years if Britain remained.

‘Hundreds’ of extra PSNI officers needed for Border after Brexit

---

Shock of no-deal Brexit would be immense – Bank of England

---

Chilling Brexit report might send MPs running to a ‘Norway plus’

---

‘My desire to be an Irish citizen was increased by Brexit’s follies’

---

Mark Carney, its governor, said in the worst possible case the economy would slump by 8 per cent, house prices would fall by a third and that interest rates would have to rise to match a spike in inflation. “Our job is not to hope for the best but prepare for the worst,” he said.

Denis Staunton reports the Bank of England analysis also shows Ireland would suffer collateral damage in that scenario "very quickly". As he points out, 13 per cent of Irish exports go to the UK, rising to 40 per cent in the food sector. You can read his full report here.

All change from Government on climate?

Richard Bruton hit on an idea a few years ago that has followed him from ministry to ministry: an “action plan”. His first was an action plan on jobs when in the Department of Enterprise. Then he had an action plan for education. Now in his new department, he will shortly produce an action plan for climate change.

There’s a bit of artifice to it. You get 300 actions, and immediately you see half are just box-ticking exercises: hold a meeting to discuss holding another meeting setting out broad parameters of a possible review.

That said, some plans are real. And what they have given us is a tangible identification of what must be done, and a map of how that is going to be done. We can see the deliverables, and we can see if they have been implemented or not.

And it’s badly needed for climate change. Not too long ago, Bruton’s political timing was a bit off. But since becoming a Minister all that has changed. His arrival into the Department of Communications coincided with good news relating to climate-change policy - the announcement of substantial funding for climate-change projects.

The previous minister, Denis Naughten, had been working on this for a considerable time. But he is gone now, and it is Bruton who takes the glory.

The seven projects announced - and given €77 million in funding - are all very commendable. One from the ESB will ramp up the power and volume of charging points for electric vehicles; two others will provide big-district schemes in Dublin; another will allow slurry to be converted to renewable gas; another will give hybrid powers to trains; and another will convert all the street lights in rural Ireland to high-efficiency LED.

Still, as Bruton accepted yesterday, Ireland is a laggard. We are 95 per cent off our 2020 targets, and emissions will be down only 1 per cent compared to 2005, a fraction of the target of 20 per cent.

Here is my report on yesterday's announcement of project funding.

Best Reads

Miriam Lord reports on a shocking development in the Dáíl: a threat to ban doughnuts.

Stephen Collins says Brexit is no excuse to bash the Brits.

An oped piece argues for the National Broadband Plan to be stopped in the wake of the Smyth report.

Newton Emerson raises concerns about free movement in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

Simon Carswell has a fascinating piece on the oldest new Irish citizen to be sworn in this week, 86-year old Professor George L Huxley.

Jennifer Bray reports there are calls for the National Broadband Plan to go before the Public Accounts Committee.

Playbook

Dáil

10.30am: Minister for Justice Charlie Flanagan takes oral questions.

12.00: Leaders’ Questions.

14.10pm: Social Welfare, Pensions and Civil Registration Bill 2018 (Order for Report, Report and Final Stages). Also the Health (Regulation of Termination of Pregnancy) Bill 2018 - Report and Final Stages (resumed). The latter is the continuing debate on the new abortion legislation.

9pm: Topical Issues.

9.48pm: Dáil adjourns.

Seanad

10.30am: Commencement Matters.

11.30am: Order of Business.

12.45pm: Greyhound Racing Bill 2018 - Report and Final Stages.

Committees

9am: Foreign Affairs and Trade: the challenges and barriers facing returning Irish immigrants.

9am: Committee of Public Accounts: Vote 37: Social Protection. This will look at the pensions time bomb and overpayment of job seekers’ allowance among other things.